Household projections for Scotland Valerie Hale and Esther Roughsedge July 2012

Summary Methods 2010-based household projections Principal projection Variant projections Future work

Method Projections are produced by: Local authority Age (5 year bands) Household type (1 adult male, 1 adult female, 2 adults, 1adult 1 child, 1 adult 2+ children, 2+ adults 1+children, 3+ adults) Project headship rates to 2035 Calculate private household population to 2035 Calculate the raw household projection Constrain LA figures to Scottish totals Constrain to household estimates Minimum adult and child adjustments Sum LA figures to give final Scottish figures Final projections Inputs Population projections Communal establishment estimates Headship rates Household estimates

Principal projection 23% increase in households between 2010 and 2035 Increases in small households and decreases in large households

Principal projection Large increases in older households Local authority changes are between -6% and +43% to 2035

2010-based household projections – variant projections 6 variant projections were published Migration (High and Low) Alternative headship variants Economic downturn variant

Migration variants based on variant population projections

Alternative headship variants Survey evidence suggests that the household projections may be overestimating 1 adult households and under-estimating larger households. 2010

Alternative headship variants Assume slower changes in headship rates (half way between those of the principal projection and the rate in 2001)

Economic downturn In the last three years the year on year increase in the household numbers has been much lower than in previous years (based on council tax data)

Constrained housing variant Assumes that for 2012 to 2014 the year-on-year increases will be the same as the average yearly increases for 2009, 2010 and 2011 (applied at local authority level).

Future Work Microsimulation-based variant Produce a new variant using a Scottish microsimulation model developed by Ashley McCormick and Paul Williamson Incorporation of 2011 census results We will review the methodology used in light of the 2011 census results –Use more than two census points? –Use Household Reference Person? –Suggestions?

Contacts 2010-based household projections: scotland.gov.uk/statistics/theme/households/ projections/2010-based/index.html scotland.gov.uk/statistics/theme/households/ projections/2010-based/index.html or