T HE S CIENCE OF G LOBAL C LIMATE C HANGE : How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director of the University of Minnesota’s Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve

W HAT M AY H APPEN TO M INNESOTA ’ S C LIMATE ? H OW M AY C HANGES IN C LIMATE A FFECT M INNESOTA ’ S E COSYSTEMS ?

W ELCOME TO L AKE S UPERIOR ?

Wikipedia I T ’ S A LL A BOUT THE C LIMATE … CLIMATE is the prevailing weather conditions of a region averaged over long periods of time.

Wikipedia A BIOME is a large land area characterized by a prevailing CLIMATE that supports a major ecological community type. … AND THE B IOMES THAT R ESULT N ORTH A MERICA ’ S B IOMES

M INNESOTA ’ S B IOMES MN DNR Minnesota is unique in that it supports three major biomes, making it a grand ECOTONE… a transition zone between biomes.

W HERE G OES THE C LIMATE, SO G OES THE B IOMES …

T EMPERATURE (Solar Radiation) P RECIPITATION (Amount & Timing) S OIL M OISTURE (Evapotranspiration)

Pearson Education

G LOBAL B IOMES “S URVIVE & T HRIVE ”

-14 o F BOREAL FOREST 60 o F -20 o F 0 o F 30 o F 41 o F 60 o F 80 o F 41 o F 10 o F GRASSLAND 80 o F 39 o F DECIDUOUS 72 o F A VERAGE A NNUAL T EMPERATURE (U.S.) “S URVIVE & T HRIVE ” T OLERANCE R ANGES J.Corney

10in. 20in. 35in. 45in. 60in. 26in. 25in. DECIDUOUS FOREST 60in. 15in. BOREAL FOREST 40in. 10in. GRASSLAND 35in. A VERAGE A NNUAL P RECIPITATION (U.S.) “S URVIVE & T HRIVE ” T OLERANCE R ANGES J.Corney

U.S. C LIMATE R ANGES

U.S. 5 o C (41 o F) 66cm (26in.) C ONTINENTAL U.S. B IOMES

B Eco tone Sub-Tropical Temperate S U.S.: o C (10-80 o F) U.S.: o C ( o F) U.S.: 2-22 o C (35-72 o F) T EMPERATURE 5 o C (41 o F) Boreal Sub-Arctic N J.Corney

Semi-Mesic Mesic Eco tone E Arid Semi-Arid W 25-87cm (10-35in) cm (15-40in) cm (25-60in) P RECIPITATION 66cm (26in.) J.Corney

Wikipedia S OIL M OISTURE Evapotranspiration 67% Surface Runoff 29% Consumptive Use 2% Groundwater Outflow 2% U.S. Estimated Water Budget USGS

E W S OIL M OISTURE N S Ecotone J.Corney

N ORTH A MERICA ’ S P RAIRIE -F OREST B ORDER ?

Major Biomes NOAA - NWS U.S. C LIMATE & B IOMES P ROFILE

TEMPERATURE: 41 o F annual avg. PRECIPITATION: 26 in. annual avg. W HAT I S M INNESOTA ’ S C URRENT C LIMATE ? (Averaged over the past 100 years) D O T HESE A VERAGES L OOK F AMILIAR ?

U.S. 5 o C (41 o F) 66cm (26in.) C ONTINENTAL U.S. B IOMES

U.S. C LIMATE I SOLINES 36” 20” 24” 28” 32” 36” 40” 16” 12” 8” 4” <4” 28” 60” 40” 50” 8” 64 o F 100” ( ) 42 o F 45 o F 48 o F 51 o F 54 o F 58 o F 62 o F 64 o F 72 o F 68 o F 51 o F 45 o F 58 o F 64 o F 62 o F 54 o F 42 o F 51 o F 39 o F 72 o F ( ) 72 o F 68 o F

TEMPERATURE 44 o F 37 o F 41 o F NWS T EMPERATURE I SOLINES

40in PRECIPITATION 26in 23in 35in NWS P RECIPITATION I SOLINES

5 o C (41 o F) 66cm (26in.) C URRENT MN C LIMATE OF 2010

PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE 44 o F 37 o F 41 o F 23in35in 26in NWS I SOLINE C ONVERGENCE P OINT

MN S OIL M OISTURE B ALANCE USDA - +

CONIFEROUS FOREST DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND MINNESOTA BIOMES MN DNR

H AVE T HERE B EEN C HANGES IN MN’ S C LIMATE ? IPCC

34in 19in 26in 31in 36 o F 40 o F 43 o F 41 o F Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) Average Annual Temperature Isoclines ( o F) TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT ( ) NWS adapted by C. Lehman St. Cloud Area 22in 1930

38in 23in 26in 35in 37 o F 39 o F 44 o F 41 o F Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) Average Annual Temperature Isoclines ( o F) TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT ( ) NWS adapted by C. Lehman 2010 Detroit Lakes Area 30in

CONIFEROUS FOREST DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND MINNESOTA BIOMES MN DNR About a 100 mile shift

W HAT M AY H APPEN TO M INNESOTA ’ S F UTURE C LIMATE ?

TEMPERATURE 3.5 – 4.0 o C (6.3 – 7.2 o F) INCREASE 5 o C (41 o F) Current Avg. becomes 9 o C (48 o F) Predicted Avg. PRECIPITATION 5 – 10% (1.3 – 2.6 in.) INCREASE 26 in. Current Avg. becomes 28 in. Predicted Avg IPCC, 2007

USGCRP – Hayhoe, et al.

40in 26in 37in 48 o F 51 o F 41 o F Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) Average Annual Temperature Isoclines ( o F) TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT ( ) 2100 NWS adapted by C. Lehman Oh, Canada! 28in 33in 44 o F

9 o C (48 o F) 71cm (28in.) P REDICTED MN C LIMATE OF 2100

GRASSLAND DECIDUOUS FOREST MINNESOTA BIOMES 2100 SAVANNA About a 300 mile shift

USGRCP - National Arbor Day Foundation Plant Hardiness Zones 2100

USDA-Forest Service Projected (2100)

S O, M AYBE N OT T HIS …

P ERHAPS S OMETHING L IKE T HIS …

Luka S O, H OW W ILL THE T REES M IGRATE ?

MN DNR S UCCESSION, D ISTURBANCE & C OMPETITION

Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director University of Minnesota Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve 2660 Fawn Lake Dr NE East Bethel, MN (763)