Recession Briefing NIACE Seminar January 2010 Ben Neild Assistant Director, SLIM

UK GDP Source: ONS

Unemployment, SW Source: ONS / BBC

Unemployment Lagging Indicator Source: LFS, ONS Estimates 19 Quarters of positive growth before unemployment returns to pre- recession levels We have now had 6 successive quarter s of negative growth

Unemployment Lagging Indicator Source: LFS, ONS

LFS & Claimant Count Unemployment, SW Source: LFS % Working age population in Employment

Employment Volume & Rate Source: LFS % Working age population

Migration Source: LFS National Insurance Number Registrations

Involuntary part-time working Source: LFS Number of people in the South West working part-time because they can't find a full-time job

Employment Volume & Rate Source: LFS All people aged 16+

Employment Rates Source: LFS Annual Change in % Employment Rates by Age Group, South West, to March 2009

ILO Unemployment Source: LFS

Employment Rate, SW Source: LFS % Working age population in Employment, Sept – Nov 2009

Claimant Count Rates by region Source: JC+ / NOMIS

Redundancies Source: JC+ administrative data

Redundancies Source: JC+ administrative data

Vacancies Source: JC+ / NOMIS Notified to Jobcentre plus, monthly, SW

Claimants per vacancy - SW Source: JC+ / NOMIS

Claim duration Source: JC+ / NOMIS

Claim duration Source: JC+ / NOMIS Proportion of claimants leaving JSA each month, by duration of unemployment, April 2008 to Present

Employment Rates Source: LFS South West by gender, indexed, Aug 08 = 100

Gender – Claimant Count Source: JC+ / NOMIS South West Claimant Count by gender

Impact on Sectors Source: JC+ administrative data

Source: JC+ / NOMIS Age – Claimant Count South West, Indexed, April 2008 = 100

Claimant Count by Age Source: NOMIS / JC+ + 3% of age band

LFS Unemployment Source: NOMIS / JC+ 16 to 24 year olds, UK & English Regions

Impact on occupations Composition of Employment & Claimant Count, South West, August 2009 % Claimants% Employment Managers and Senior Officials 6%16% Professional Occupations 5%12% Associate Professional and Technical Occupations 7%15% Administrative and Secretarial Occupations 11% Skilled Trades Occupations 13%12% Personal Service Occupations 5%9% Sales and Customer Service occupations 15%8% Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 11%6% Elementary Occupations 27%11%

Projected change in employment by occupation, Composition of Employment & Claimant Count, South West, August 2009