SCENARIO PLANNING & SPEAR Sue Morris Scenario Manager 15th July 2002

Agenda Scenario Planning in RA Future plans: SPEAR (Scenario Planning, Evaluation & Review) Project

Anticipating the future has never been easy... “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” (Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943) “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” (Popular Mechanics, 1949) There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their home.” (Ken Olson, founder of DEC, 1977) “640k ought to be enough memory for anybody.” (Bill Gates, 1981)

Why use scenarios?  Addressing uncertainty  Accelerating change in technologies, markets  Stimulate strategic thinking  Broader picture of technological, political, economic, environmental, social trends  Identify and debate issues  Managing risk  Being prepared for the future

Why use scenarios? ForecastScenariosHope Predictability Uncertainty Distance into Future

RA Convergence Scenarios To map the future of convergence and spectrum management for the next decade Telecoms MediaInternet 3G Broadband Conver- gence Interactive Media

RA Convergence Scenarios Internet Convergence The telecom, computing, entertainment and consumer electronics industries have all converged around open internet standards and globally available open services To map the future of convergence and spectrum management for the next decade Digital Islands ‘Walled gardens’ are much more popular than the fully open Internet, which is considered unsafe and the lowest common denominator Total Mobility Changes in lifestyle and work drive major increases in the use of personal, mobile, converged services Broadband Revolution Incredible increases in the speed and capacity of wireline networks totally revolutionise communications, information processing and entertainment

Relative demand for spectrum RA Convergence Scenarios

Interactive SocietyImmersive Theatre Creativity Lab

70% of B2B commerce is conducted via the Internet “According to Lehman Brothers, a transfer between bank accounts costs $1.27 if done by a bank teller, but drops dramatically to 27c if accomplished via the cash machine. The Internet? Try a penny!” Accounting Today PressData Web Video

Application of scenarios to date Scenarios developed May 2000, and revalidated with events updated in Feb 2001 To inform and revise Spectrum Strategy and feed into broader policy on communications Scenarios installed at in February 2002 Joint session at futurefocus with ITC and internal business unit workshops “Event” review workshops

SPEAR Objectives To ensure scenarios and events are reviewed and kept up to date To monitor how developments are affecting scenarios To establish a database of convergence & spectrum related information that is easily accessible To facilitate exploration of specific topics and investigation of ‘what-if’ questions

SPEAR Scenario Planning Framework SCENARIO & EVENT REVIEW Software Selection Modelling & Development Models & Database Reports on Intranet Simulation Tool

Further information (Convergence hot topic button): information on Convergence scenarios information on DTI’s futurefocus facility