Are MPs revolting? Philip Cowley University of Nottingham.

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Presentation transcript:

Are MPs revolting? Philip Cowley University of Nottingham

Backbench rebellions, first sessions, Labour Governments,

% rebellions,

Largest rebellions since 2001

The rebel top ten

The poodles myth: separate rebellions 4th largest average in post-war period 133 rebels in total Rebellion on increase before the 2001 election

Size of rebellions,

% size of rebellions,

Number of issues rebelled over

Reasons for increasing rebellion The decline of self-discipline Ex-ministers: 90 Ex-would-be ministers: 80+ Growing number of rebels

Time Frequency

Time

‘We will not introduce ‘top up’ fees and have legislated to prevent them’ Ambitions for Britain, 2001

The scale of the opposition Paul Farrelly’s EDM 2: 138 MPs John Grogan’s EDM 799: 93 MPs Anne Campbell’s EDM 944: 70 MPs Ian Gibson’s EDM 7: public opponents of top-up fees

Holes, how to get in them Policy –Outright opposition –Revenue -- and cap –Debt –Variability -- and marketisation Process –No consultation –Manifesto Recent history

Ian Gibson EDM: Past Behaviour

Second Reading

Ian Gibson EDM: How They Voted

Top up fees EDM signers, by previous rebellion

% likelihood of backing government, by previous behaviour

Holes, getting out of Threaten them with victory Divide and conquer Love them to death Change policy

Threaten them with victory Votes of confidence? Prime Ministerial resignation? Damaged Government? Conservative revival Hutton

Divide and conquer Report Stage rebellion: defectors from 2nd Reading Six new rebels Third reading: four new rebels Total: 82 cross-votes

Changes in Policy White Paper Bill Second Reading Report Stage