Strategic futures Western Balkan NFP Meeting, February 2007 Anita Pirc Velkavrh

Report: Environmental trends and perspecitves in Western Balkan: towards sustainable consumption (to be published in 2009)

1.General environmental trends and perspectives –Based on CSI and outlook indicators –Using outcomes from CARDS project plus additional 2.Driving forces that shape Western Balkan environmental futures 3. Houshold consumption trends and perspectives –Food, transport, housing –Overview of consumption issues –Consumption and quality of life –Impact on the environment –Key trends and future perspectives –Key driving forces –Key actors: government, the business sector and civil society/NGOs Report structure

uncertainties complex and dynamic environment driving forces of future environmental change Past and forward-looking INDICATORS SCENARIOS what if... Forward-looking assessment

How are these elements addressed in the report? – Emphases of the report is on driving forces –European and global –Regional –Consumption specific – Uncertainties are at the beginning stage of the analyses – more work is needed – Availability of scenarios is poor; what if question are difficult to answer

Driving forces of environmental change and consumption 1.Politics 2.Legislation and policy 3.Globalisation and Trade 4.Global environmental change 5.Macroeconomic development 6.Markets and business 7.Land use and natural resource use 8.Technology 9.Population and migration 10.Consumer choice and behaviour 11.Personal needs, values and lifestyles

Driving force: LAND USE CHANGE AND NATURAL RESOURCE USE GENERAL ENV.CHANGE FOOD CONSUMPTION HOUSINGMOBILITY Urbanisation (N) XXX Forestry (R,N) X Fuel, biofuels and construction Agricultural land use (R,N) X Organic farming Land abondonment X Land abondonment Transport infrastructure (E,R,N) X Privatisation of land (N) X

1.Out of 37 CSI, regional assessment for WB is possible for 19 indicators for past 14 indicators for future Bdiv Land use Municipal waste Water water use Fishing Transport transport Organic farming Energy energy GHG emissions air emissions 2. Available scenarios studies: 16 for SEE/WB region and 24 on the country level Availability of indicators and scenarios - environment in general

Availability of indicators relevant for consumption (food, housing, mobility) 27 indicators were found relevant to be included available for WB: –13 indicators for past –7 indicators for future

Contribution to SOER 2010 How can be indicators used in part C or part B? Others?

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