Scenario 2 "Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in Western Balkan" February 2013, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Scenario 2: Techno-garden in the Balkans X Axis – The horizontal axis in the matrix outlines the Climate Change impacts, ranging from Low to High Climate Change impacts on one side. Y Axis – The vertical axis refers to Economic Growth (ranging from unsustainable to overall Sustainable development, considering care of the environment and contributing to sustainable economic growth)

S2: Key characteristics Green Economy - Rich but Green! Can tackle intensive resource use Technology driven Water and Energy dependant on imports EU Integration (+ increased WB political integration), Peaceful WB, social cohesion and civil society, strong private sector and FDI Investments in tourism – result increase of economic growth & energy costs CC increase of T 2-3 ⁰C  Hot summers (impact on Energy & Agri, length of season, crop types  Change of precipitation regime (Agri effects, floods – WB tackles with good forecasting & prevention systems)  Heat waves, lost coastline, malaria (tackled with technological means – dams, disease protection, cooling systems)

Global & EU Context Peace-building Greening the world economies Global Legal Frameworks – ex. UNFCCC World Water Assessment Programme WHO Water, Crisis and Climate Change Assessment Framework

Driving Forces Driving Forces STEEP categories Special patterns of urbanization (dense & ultra efficient cities) Population stable – slightly increasing due to immigration Decreased consumption – high consumer awareness and SC patterns – High level of education: water conscious society SOCIAL Technological breakthrough & achievements Developed forecasting & adaptation system High use of renewable resources, water reuse, drainage & irrigation systems, desalinization Import of Technology (but available capacities to use it) Waste reuse & recycling TECHNOLOGICAL Well developed societies ; Increased food prices Value-added for produced food (export) Green Economy; Promotion of FDI, Water pricing priorities ECONOMICAL

Driving Forces Driving Forces STEEP categories Impacts: Malaria and heat waves tackled by technologies Precipitation change; Limited water available for ecosystems Land use management – to prevent floods Use of renewable energy sources Recycling and reusing Waste & Water Mining & Minerals specific pressures in the WB ENVIRONMENTAL Strong political stability Efficient immigration policy Efficient water management (Security & regional cooperation) Strong trans-boundary water frameworks (legislature) POLITICAL (including Security)

Environmental Impacts Floods/Droughts – effects on agriculture, water availability & management, Hydropower Water Quality/Pollution Soil erosion/Costal erosion Resource depletion Loss in ecosystems & biodiversity

ME – Individual in scenario Hi level of education, technology proficiency, environmental awareness and social cohesion Mobile youth and activism Research & Development focused Active society – solution oriented

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