Ed Dammers Copenhagen, 12 November Usability of scenarios in different domains of policy-making

2 Reasons PBL intends to publish a manual for using scenarios in September 2014 Using scenarios appears to be difficult: -use of one scenario as quasi prognosis -taking only optimistic or pessimistic scenarios into consideration -more instrumental than fundamental learning

3 Content Usability of scenarios in general Usability for: - Adaptive management - Cost-benefit analysis - Transition management - Societal debate

4 Usability in general Cognition trends, mutual relations and impacts wild cards, conditions and impacts alternative policies and impacts Communication stimulate open discussions structuring discussions Commitment provide support for current policy inspire to choose alternative policy

5 Adaptive management Making flexible decisions, anticipating future developments Defining pathways instead of fixed future situations Taking current policy as a starting point and focusing on tipping points: incremental changes Monitoring current developments

Adaptive management

7 Roles of scenarios Exploring future developments and possible tipping points Taking (cognitive) uncertainty into consideration Integrated approach, e.g. water management, agriculture, and nature development

8 Cost-benefit analysis Integrated assessment of physical and other projects Providing an overview of societal costs and benefits Project alternatives are compared to a reference alternative All impacts are expressed in terms of money (or PM)

Cost-benefit analysis The winning alternative was the most expensive one, but also the most profitable one

10 Roles of scenarios Exploring future developments and their impacts on a project’s costs and benefits Taking (cognitive) uncertainty into consideration Integrated approach: impacts of economic growth, demographic development, urbanisation, mobility, etc.

11 Required characteristics Adaptive management and cost-benefit analysis require scenarios that are: moderately explorative descriptive highly quantitative plausible

12 Transition management Focusing on fundamental changes: transitions Building visions that challenge current policy Embodying (very) long-term ambitions: normative Focusing on alternative strategies: pathways

Adaptive management

14 Roles of scenarios Exploring long-term policy challenges: agenda-setting Exploring various policy alternatives: innovate thinking Providing insights in the feasibility of the alternatives: robustness and flexibility

15 Societal debate About an issue which is high on the societal and political agenda High cognitive and normative uncertainty (high conflict level), e.g. nuclear energy, genetically modified food, financial crisis Organised via public meetings, public media, the internet, social media, etc.

Societal discussion

17 Roles of scenarios Exploring future developments and policy challenges they may generate Exploring policy alternatives and their intended and unintended impacts Structuring the discussion and limiting conflicts

18 Required characteristics Transition management and societal debates require scenarios that are: highly explorative (incl. wild cards) descriptive as well as normative qualitative as well as quantitative highly inspiring / plausible

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