 TYNDP assessmentFindings for NW region  ResilienceDenmark/Sweden, Luxembourg  Supply dependencySouth of France  Network adaptabilityno issues  Supply source diversificationDenmark/Sweden  Projects resolving aforementioned issues  For Denmark/Sweden: solved by Project Ellund, see section and  For Luxembourg: work in progress, see section  For South of France: work in progress, see section In depth analysis of TYNDP issues 1

Resilience 2

Supply Source Dependency 3

Supply Source Diversification 4

Resilience Assessment  Potential investment gaps  Germany, Denmark (and Sweden) TYNDP Project Ellund  Capacity extension from Germany to Denmark would solve this issue  Projects were identified through an Open Season in 2009  FID-project Step 1 increase capacity from Oct at a level of 310,000 m³/h  Non-FID project Step 2 increase capacity in 2016 at a level of 500,000 m³/h Update GRIP 2013  Step 2 is now also FID  No investment gap Chapter ‘In Depth Review of TYNDP Identified NW Issues’: Example 5

 Procedures followed to define investment projects  Past and present projects (FID)  Possible future projects (non-FID)  Maps  Matrix  Explanation how the matrix works in conjunction with the appendix Background to NWE Projects 6

Matrix – how it works 7  Step 1: look up the IP number on capacity map  Step 2: goto matrix and find IP number (ascending order)  Step 3: find TYNDP code(s) of project(s)  Step 4: with TYNDP code and country goto appendix (countries in alphabetical order, within country in alphabetical order of TYNDP code)

S&D  Demand uncertainty  Energy efficiency measures taken in member states are part of the demand figures of the NW GRIP report  But major uncertainty in heating market is outside temperatures. Elasticity for domestic heating market on price is low. Implementation of draft RCC feedback September 4 th 8

Matrix – how it works 9  Step 1: look up the IP number on capacity map  Step 2: goto matrix and find IP number (ascending order)  Step 3: find TYNDP code(s) of project(s)  Step 4: with TYNDP code and country goto appendix (countries in alphabetical order, within country in alphabetical order of TYNDP code)

 TSOs are aware of TYNDP identified issues  Germany/Denmark/Sweden solved, RFO 2016  Vulnerable position of Sweden improved but not solved. Solutions identified but not decided  Luxembourg congestion identified but not solved  Price spread between PEG Nord and PEG South identified, solutions being analysed  Enduring importance of gas, but increasing import dependency  Depleting L-gas sources in Germany and the Netherlands trigger L-gas market conversion  Role of gas in power generation and increasing contribution of RES adds to the challenges in flexible gas supply and transmission  Further challenges to network development due to decreasing long term transmission capacity commitments Conclusions 10

11 NW GRIP 2013 Timeline - future  Publish report, start consultation phase  GRIP workshop ENTSOG  GRI NW presentation  End consultation phase  Review of feedback  ENTSOG discussions future GRIPs  New NW GRIP 2015 Nov Nov 28 Nov 1 st Jan

Questions? 12