How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Unmasking the Black Box Stephen Jascourt*UCAR/COMET at NWS Headquarters Bill BuaUCAR/COMET at NCEP.

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Presentation transcript:

How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Unmasking the Black Box Stephen Jascourt*UCAR/COMET at NWS Headquarters Bill BuaUCAR/COMET at NCEP Greg ByrdUCAR/COMET at UCAR

How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Example: Model runs from 00 UTC 8 Oct 2007 Fire weather danger over northeast Nevada? NOAA/NCEP NAM 48-h forecast at Elko, NV SREF 48-h probability [no precip, RH 20MPH,T>60F] RH? Forecast T, mixing depth X Elko

How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Example: Model runs from 00 UTC 8 Oct 2007 Position, strength of lakes cut-off? Frost potential? GFS ensembles 72 h valid 00Z 11 Oct 500 hPa 558 dm NOAA/NCEP 2-m T o C 84 h valid 12Z Oct 11 NAM GFS

UNMASKING THE BLACK BOX 8 years of NWP training Navigation, how to find it 1.MetEd site 2.Operational Models Matrix Individual NWP models, ensembles, wave models NWP Course (conceptual background) Model-specific information Forums Ensemble module 3.Case examples – what happened, why 4.VISITview teletraining – integrates content, cases 5.COMET Webcast modules – integrates content, cases 6.Seasonal Powerpoints – summaries, cases

NAVIGATION MetEd home:

NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix

NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix

NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix

NWP COURSE Navigation panel Content panel

NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix Content is updated as models change!

MODEL-SPECIFIC CONTENT

NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix

NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix

NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix

NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix

NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix

NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix

NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix

NAVIGATION Discussion forums

NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix

MODULES Ensemble Forecasting Explained Navigation panel Content panel

NAVIGATION Cases

CASES How Good Data Can Lead to a Poor Model Analysis Navigation panelContent panel

CASES How Good Data Can Lead to a Poor Model Analysis

5-10 o C cooler than first guess nearly same as first guess Smooths out changes to first guess

NAVIGATION VISITview Teletraining

VISIT SESSIONS NAM-WRF Update and Performance Discussion Lake-effect heavy snow, why good forecast?

NAVIGATION MetEd home:

WEBCASTS Using the WRF Mesoscale Model [AFWA] Lots of data shown, user challenged to explain, predict, and verify during the module

WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF Model

Model change summary and forecast impacts

WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF Model Precipitation type algorithm change: affects diagnosed type

WEBCASTS Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)

SEASONAL TRAINING Convective Parameterization “Convective Weather Refresher” under “Convective Weather” topic on MetEd home page

SUMMARY 8 years of NWP training Navigation, how to find it Start:MetEd site Register (free), log in Select NWP under TOPICS Operational Models Matrix ( Individual NWP models, ensembles, wave models NWP Course (conceptual background) Model-specific information Forums Ensemble module Case examples ( COMET Webcast modules – integrates content, cases Seasonal Powerpoints – summaries, cases, content VISITview teletraining – integrates content, cases