1 Use and Abuse of MM5 Chris Davis NCAR (MMM/RAP) Acknowledgements: Fei Chen, Kevin Manning, Simon Low-Nam, Jimy Dudhia, Jim Bresch, Wei Wang Presented at COMAP Symposium 99-1 Thursday, 20 May 1999

2 The MM5 modeling system flow chart * * from MM5 tutorial

3 Schematic representation of the vertical structure of the model. The example is for 15 layers. Dashed land solid lines denote half- and full-sigma levels, respectively.* * from MM5 tutorial

4 Example of a nesting configuration. The shading shows three different levels of nesting.* * from MM5 tutorial

5 Physics Options in MM5 Cumulus Parameterizations None Anthes-Kuo Grell Arakawa-Schubert Fritsch-Chappel Kain-Fritsch Betts-Miller Shallow Cumulus

6 PBL Schemes None Bulk PBL High-resolution Blackadar PBL Burk-Thompson PBL MRF PBL

7 Explicit Moisture Schemes Dry Stable Precip Warm Rain Simple Ice (Dudhia) Mixed-Phase (Reisner) Goddard microphysics Reisner graupel

8 Radiation Schemes None Simple cooling Suface radiation Cloud-radiation scheme CCM2 radiation scheme

9 Ground Temperature Schemes None Force/restore (Blackadar) scheme

10 PBL and SURFACE LAYER

11 Diurnal cycle: Comparison of 2-meter temperature for MM5 with Slab surface model, MM5 with new Land Surface Model (LSM), and observations from FIFE.

12 Diurnal cycle: Comparison of various surface quantities for MM5 with Slab surface model, MM5 with new Land Surface Model (LSM), and observations from FIFE. Incoming Solar Latent Heat Flux Surface RadiationSensible Heat Flux

13 q (g/kg) Mixing ratio at lowest model level compared to FIFE observations.

14 Profiles of potential temperature at selected times: comparison of MM5 with FIFE observations Z1530 Z 1830 Z 2330 Z

15 Comparison of MM5 forecasts with RAOB data over the western U.S. from WISP’94.

16 Comparison of MM5 forecasts with RAOB data over the CONUS from WISP’94.

17 Distribution of the Scottish haar NOAA GMT 27 APRIL 1984 NOAA GMT 27 APRIL 1984

18 MM5 forecasts of the Scottish haar UTC1600 UTC

19 COMPLEX TERRAIN

20 4-domain configuration of MM5 for simulations over complex terrain of western Utah. Timeline of forecast cycle shown at bottom.

21 10-hour MM5 forecast on Domain 3 (3.3 km) of near-surface winds and potential temperature valid 2200 UTC 9 September, 1997.

22 4-hour MM5 forecast on Domain 4 (1.1 km) of near-surface winds and potential temperature valid 2200 UTC 9 September 1997.

23 Analysis of surface streamlines from Utah mesonet data on Domain 4 (1.1 km) for 0000 UTC 10 September 1997.

24 Mean absolute errors for 24-hour lagged persistence forecasts of surface meridional wind component. Mean absolute errors for MM5 forecasts of surface meridional wind component. Difference between persistence and MM5 forecasts. Blue bar indicates differences that are statistically significant at >95% confidence level.

25 Time-averaged MM5 24-hour forecasts and observations of surface temperature ( C) and wind (long barb = 1 m/s) valid at 1200 UTC for November-December 1997.

26 CONVECTION

27 HURRICANE OPAL

28 48-hour MM5 prediction of Hurricane Opal valid 1200 UTC 4 October 1995: left is Betts-Miller cumulus scheme, right is Kain-Fritsch scheme.

29 48-hour MM5 prediction of Hurricane Opal valid 1200 UTC 4 October 1995: left is Betts-Miller cumulus scheme, right is Kain-Fritsch scheme.

30 72-hour MM5 prediction of Hurricane Opal valid 1200 UTC 4 October 1995 using Betts-Miller scheme with continuous data assimilation supplying boundary conditions.

31 THE 1997 FORT COLLINS FLASH FLOOD

32

33 Real-time MM5 9-km forecast of accumulated precipitation between 0000 UTC and 0600 UTC 29 July 1997.

34 Retrospective MM5 9-km simulation of accumulated precipitation between 0000 UTC and 0600 UTC 29 July 1997.

35 Retrospective MM5 3-km simulation of accumulated precipitation between 0000 UTC and 0600 UTC 29 July 1997.