JAMES NELSON ANCHORAGE WFO 12/7/2011 NCEP Review

What we like 2 New NAM is performing well over the forecast area in the recent storms - subjective HPC long range support has been very good. The stats have bore this result. Extra-Tropical Storm Surge Data Gridded MOS Ice Drift Forecasts WRF-RR – Aviation and short-term  Possible use in RTMA when it gets spun up operationally

Needs/Wants 3 NCO  GFS 3hr output  WRF-RR output for AK  NAM Nests  NAEFS products MMB  Near-Shore Wave Modeling over the Fjords of Southeast and through Prince William Sound. Currently working with Andre.  Ice Model with evaluation from Alaska Ice Desk possibly working with NIC.

Collaborative Possibilities 4 SPC  Collaboration with Aviation Unit on their Convective Outlook Product for Alaska  Fire Wx threats CPC  Threats page participation OPC  Collaboration on grids/forecast  Volcanic Ash

Notes 5 Under-dispersive GEFS in high impact events - subjective 18z run of GFS in our domain is a poor performer – subjective  Therefore, reducing the effectiveness of the 12Z NAM due to boundary condition contamination SREF data ok with Aviation parameters.

Significant Rain Event 6 Large Precipitation Event – October Models significantly underforecasted the event Brings to the forefront of the predictability of significant rainfall events. Models generally were half the amount that was observed.

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Odd Find – Marine Verification 12 Looking over our Marine Verification we decided to try some other stats and break them down Found some odd features over Alaska GFS model performance improvements varied from North to South

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“EPIC” Bering Storm 14 Guidance was good.  Mentions of the large storm were highlighted up to 5 days in advance with Emergency Manager briefing (Happens every Friday) Continued performance was there as well with intensity forecast. ETSS was a big help and graphics were very useful to push to the public.

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17 Locations with Maximum Wind Gusts of at least Hurricane-force (official values unless noted): Cape Lisburne81 mph at 700 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Gambell74 mph at 600 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 Kotzebue74 mph at 600 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Little Diomede (Unofficial)93 mph late Tue night Nov 9 Point Hope78 mph at 500 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 (incomplete due to power outage; an unofficial maximum is 85 mph) Savoonga76 mph at 700 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 Tin City85 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Wales89 mph at 142 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Damage

18 Locations with Maximum Wind Gusts of 55 to 73 mph (official values): Cape Romanzof60 mph at 300 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Buckland56 mph at 316 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Deering61 mph at 319 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Emmonak62 mph at 1100 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 Golovin64 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Kivalina71 mph at 323 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Marshall64 mph at 1100 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 Noatak62 mph at 1036 am AKST Wed Nov 9 Nome61 mph at 900 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 Noorvik67 mph at 423 am AKST Wed Nov 9 Saint Marys61 mph at 900 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 Shaktoolik64 mph at 115 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Shishmaref67 mph at 1216 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Shungnak69 mph at 900 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 St. Michael68 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Teller71 mph at 600 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Unalakleet66 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9