Analysis of the wood biomass use under EFSOS II Energy scenario with the EFI-GTM model Alexander Moiseyev, Birger Solberg & Maarit Kallio UMB & EFI & METLA LEF biennial workshop, Nancy, May 31 – June 1, 2012

2 EFI-GTM model Global Forest Sector Model Partial equilibrium model Several regional agents maximize their profit/welfare under perfect competition Recursive model Dimensions – 36 products (6 wood, 4 rec.paper, 26 forest industry products) + Energy Wood (+ Electricity & Heat) – 60 regions (31 in Europe) – 1–3 existing production technologies + new technologies from investments

A1 and B2 assumptions GDP growth (A1- 3% EU average annual growth and for B2 – 2%) Industrial Wood Supply assumption (High scenario assumptions on supply of industrial roundwood from plantations in Latin America and Developing Asia regions according to FAO’s plantation study (Brown, 2000) under A1 scenario) Russian Logs Export Tariff at 15€/m3 under B2, no tariff assumed under A1

GDP development in the main regions for A1 (left side) and B2 (right side), Trillion US1990$

Changes in production (additional to 2030 reference scenario), Million m 3 Wood based panelsSawnwood

Changes in production (additional to 2030 reference scenario), thousands metric ton Chemical pulpPaper and paperboard

Changes in harvests and trade (additional to 2030 reference scenario), Million m3 Industrial wood harvestsNet import into Europe

Projected development of wood prices under B2 reference and B2 Energy scenarios Sawlogs prices, US$(2005)Pulpwood prices, US$(2005)

European RES target in 2030 is projected to: Reduce wood based panels production in Europe, while Asia is gaining additional production Reduce sawnwood production in Europe under A1 Energy scenario, while Russia is gaining production under A1 Reduce chemical pulp production in Europe and Russia, while North America is gaining Reduce paper & board production in Europe, while North America is gaining under A1 Energy scenario Increase industrial roundwood harvest in Russia most of all, then in Europe, North America and Latin America to a lesser extent Increase additional industrial roundwood imports to Europe mainly from Russia

Additional (to the reference scenario) industrial wood use for energy in Europe 2030, Million m3

In order to achieve RES target for wood in 2030 Europe is projected to: Increase imports of industrial roundwood by 44.7 Million m3 under B2 and 39.3 Million m3 under A1 Energy scenario Increase industrial roundwood harvests by additional 22.5 Million m3 under B2 and 19 Million m3 under A1 Energy scenario Reduce by 26 Million m3 use of wood for wood products and redirect it for energy use under B2 Energy scenario and by 34 Million m3 under A1 Energy scenario

Problems / questions: Are these assumptions on High Wood Mobilisation scenarios are realistic? Under “real” economic environment (including CO2 trading) how much wood Power mills are going to buy?

Initial assumption for detailed energy calculations with EFI-GTM-energy model Oil price - $100 / burrel Hard coal price - $100 / t Brown coal price - $25 /t Gas price - $10 / MMBtu (USA price - $2.5 / MMBtu) CO2 price range: $10 – 200 /t Coal & Gas & Wood CHP & Power mills (including coal with wood co-firing)

International energy prices in reference and in the context of global climate action (“A roadmap for moving to a low carbon economy in 2050” EC, 2011)

Carbon price evolution, (“A roadmap for moving to a low carbon economy in 2050” EC, 2011)

German electricity annual production (average for ), GWh, Gas price $10/MMBtu

German electricity annual production (average for ), GWh, Gas price $15/MMBtu

German electricity annual production (average for ), GWh, Gas price $5/MMBtu

Remarks / questions: What scenario is most likely? Is it going to be nice an easy road (low cost Gas and Wind & Solar Power) Or is it going to be hard way (expensive Gas and slow Wind & Solar Power expansion. There is a HUGE difference between scenarios