Department of Finance Surveys of Private Sector Economic Forecasters.

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Presentation transcript:

Department of Finance Surveys of Private Sector Economic Forecasters

2 Economic and Fiscal Reporting The Government reports regularly on the economic and fiscal situation and outlook: The budget provides the Government’s economic and fiscal outlook. Budgets are normally tabled in February or March. In the fall, the Government releases a 5-year economic and fiscal projection to provide an economic and fiscal context for budget planning. The Fiscal Monitor provides monthly updates of fiscal developments. In early fall, the Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada and the Public Accounts of Canada report final fiscal results for the fiscal year ending March 31. Canada has received unqualified audit opinions from the Auditor General of Canada for 11 consecutive years.

3 The Department of Finance Survey of Economic Forecasters The economic forecast used for budget planning (and for the fall update) is the average of private sector economic forecasts: – The Department of Finance surveys private sector economists for their views on the main economic variables (e.g., gross domestic product, the unemployment rate, interest rates). – Sample of about 15 forecasters. The Department of Finance develops the fiscal forecast based on the average private sector economic forecast.

4 Framework for Budget Projection The average of private sector economic forecasts has been used as the base for fiscal planning since Budget Use of private sector forecast introduces an element of independence into the fiscal forecast. Framework for budgeting is based on recommendations by independent organizations: – Review of the Forecasting Accuracy and Methods of the Department of Finance, Ernst & Young, September – Review of Canadian Federal Fiscal Forecasting: Processes and Systems, O’Neill Strategic Economics, June Supported by the International Monetary Fund (How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?, IMF Working Paper, March 2005). The Parliamentary Budget Officer uses the same approach.

Department of Finance Surveys of Private Sector Economic Forecasters