Potsdam BIOENERGY DEVELOPMENT – POLISH MARKET OVERVIEW Institute for Fuels and Renewable Energy

Potsdam GENERAL INFO Poland – country in Central Europe km2 area; 38,7 mln people Forests - 28,1 % Poland, i.e. 8.8 mln ha. Agricultural lands – ca. 60% of the Poland. Growing consumption of electricity and transport fuels 89% of land potentially suitable for forestry and agro biomass production for energy purposes Primary energy prod 2003Area cover 2003

Potsdam Bioenergy types RES in Poland Liquid biofuelsBiomassOther Solar energy Wind energy Biogas Geothermal energy

Potsdam Biofuels- Polish approach up to 5% of biocomponents in traditional fuels common availability of particular kinds of biofuels: B20, B100 (at present) E85 (in the process of preparation) designated fleets possibility of producing of liquid biofuels by farmers for own use obligation of minimal share of biocomponents

Potsdam Biocomponents in Poland in 2005

Potsdam National indicative target (%)

Potsdam Bioenergy demand POLICY Support mechanisms Biological diversity Land cultivation principles Spatial planning system R&D Other RES availability Bioenergy production development Technologies of harvesting, storage and processing MARKET Competitive land use Price rates for different energy crops Is the bioenergy production competitive to the traditional production

Potsdam OPPORTUNITIES FOR ENERGY CROPS in Poland 2,3 mln ha of fallow and set-aside land in 2002 (13,6% of agricultural land), increase from 1,6 mln in 1996 Arable land0,37 ha per capita 0,18 ha in EU-15 Cereals production0,23 ha per capita0,10 ha in EU-15 Cereals yields3,1 t/ha5,5 t/ha in EU-15 Extensive type of agricultural production, possible increase in land productivity Current surplus of agricultural production, decrease in farmers incomes Strong agriculture and agro-industry lobby, sugar market reform (December 2005)

Potsdam competitiveness – available land Food and feed Bio-materials Biofuels Other Available land Forests

Potsdam LAND ALLOCATION RULES Food production is a priority, only the surplus land can be allocated for energy crops Land can be released from: Food, fodder and industrial crops, due to yield increase The effect of yield increase is higher than the change in consumption rate Fallow land 100% of fallow land will be available for energy crops in 2020

Potsdam LAND ALLOCATION RULES Land from export surpluses 30% of the cereal export could be converted to energy crops in % of pork export recalculated into fodder cereals 30% of beef exports – at max 10% of permanent grassland for energy crops

Potsdam PERSPECTIVES FOR DIFFERENT BIOMASS RESOURCES Forestry resources limited Wood industry by-products utilized, no surplus Great potential for energy crops: Large production potential of agriculture Structural changes & CAP reform- increase of set-aside land Need for alternative production in agriculture

Potsdam RES utilization for electricity production in 2005 Energy source Number of installations Electricity production in GWhTotal production share % Biomass (100%)646712,4 Biomass - co firing ,3 Biogas721032,7 Wind energy861353,6 Hydropower ,9 Total ,0

Potsdam Type of solid biomassPotentialUse PJ/a% % Straw ,11,50,9 Hay10,0 0,0 Timber from fruit growing15,02,31,00,6 Energy crops21231,90,30,2 Total agricultural biomass351,052,82,81,7 Forest stocks240,036,1104,065,0 Wood industrial wastes30,04,524,015,0 post-user timber wastes43,06,529,018,1 Timber from the roads cherishing1,00,20,1 Total solid biomass665,0100,0160,0100,0

Potsdam Problems related to bioenergy implementation Implementation of the energy crops into the agricultural production system – lack of equipment High starting investment costs High costs of preparation of the technical infrastructure in energy plants Lack of experience with RES market organizing Raw material quality – biomass plant demands

Potsdam Conclusions New support mechanisms in polish energetic low and financial resources available for the RES development in the National Development Plan should increase the RES share in the following years Time is main barrier in achievement of quantitative goals. Biomass potential is big, but time and stable politico- economical situation is needed on their start-ups (e.g. 4 years for salix) Biomass wastes from industry and agricultural production is to little utilized

Potsdam Conclusions Land availability is one of the important factors, the others are : Crop suitability (yield levels), Crops economic competitiveness/profitability, Implementation strategies

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