Is Scotland Set to Separate? John Curtice

Turnout Prospects Source: Ipsos MORI (Scottish & British Polls)

A Little Movement in the Polls? Based on 9 polls conducted Feb-May, 10 polls July-Sept, 8 polls Oct-Dec, and 12 polls in Jan/Feb. Don’t Knows excluded.

The Post Christmas Sequence % YesChange since Pre-WP TNS BMRB41+5 ICM46+6 YouGov39+1 Survation38- TNS BMRB41+5 Panelbase43-2 YouGov39+1 Survation45- ICM43+3 Panelbase44 Ipsos MORI36+2 YouGov40+2 Survation45-

The Don’t Knows

Squeezing the Don’t Knows

Possible Changers – Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos MORI

Possible Changers - ICM Source: ICM Research

The Cross-Party Transfer

The Gender Gap

Partly a Question of Identity Source: Ipsos MORI. Based on all voters except DKs

Scotland’s Future - Economy? Source: ICM Research

Scotland Future’s - Equality Source: ICM Research

Economy Matters (Much) More Source: ICM Research. Don’t Knows excluded

The Gender Gap on the Economy Source: ICM Research

Conclusion Be ready for a high turnout! The referendum race has narrowed a bit But Yes side still face a substantial challenge – Although seemingly relatively more inclined to the Yes side, not that many Don’t Knows to be won over – Existing Yes vote is seemingly softer – has to avoid ‘losing’ SNP supporters as well as win over Labour ones – Those with much sense of British identity seem reluctant to leave the Union – Have to win the economic argument – including not least amongst women