The EU as a global actor by 2030 Context –Multipolar world with China, India and U.S. as the most important players. –Globalization –More regionally organized actors in order to increase power of members (especially South America). –Power shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean. –EU will have lost its economic importance.

The EU as a global actor by 2030 European Foreign and Security Policy: Can the EU speak with one voice? –Current Institutional framework President of the European Council High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security policy European Council: defining strategic interests and providing guidelines Council has to frame the ESDP Decisions in principle taken by unanimity No role for the European Parliament or the European Court of Justice

The EU as a global actor by 2030 –Framework of the Treaty of the EU is ill- adapted for a Common Foreign and Security Policy: change or become irrelevant The High Representative needs to become a true Secretary of Foreign Affairs, more integrated with the Commission Qualified majority voting in European Council and Council More power to the EU Parliament to discuss essential elements of ESDP to enhance legitimacy

The EU as a global actor by 2030 CFSP by 2030: –Safeguarding the integrity, security, values and independence of the EU: There will be no major traditional threats against EU or major conflicts due to economic globalization Energy supply: 90 % of gas and 80 % of oil will come from outside the EU, from instable regimes and more competition for these resources and increases in costs  Alternative: renewable energy Natural resources: a new economic scramble for Africa? Terrorism? Remains a threat, but as such not a major threat. Importance of multilateralism

The EU as a global actor by 2030 –Conflict prevention will be of the utmost importance: in a multipolar world more low intensity conflicts are likely and EU has expertise Soft power: strengthening human rights, democracy and the rule of law. Combating poverty by promoting sustainable development, with focus on Africa (how to reconcile realism with idealism) Integration of countries in the world economy (but what about EU trade barriers?) Enhanced cooperation with other States, international organizations such as the UN and regional organizations: establishing a network to ensure global governance

The EU as a global actor by 2030 –Peacekeeping: keeping warring factions apart, will be most often performed in intra-State asymmetric conflict Develop capabilities for rapid reaction and insertion in conflict areas New strategies to deal with asymmetric warfare Close relation with UN and Security Council: the EU as police force of the world? –Post-conflict reconstruction: Especially develop civil capabilities (police, civil servants, judges) to restore failed States while military ensures security  Goals: establish democratic State, rule of law and human rights

The EU as a global actor by 2030 Assets: Common Defence Policy –Will be implemented by –A radical reformation of European armies: a EU army is unlikely, but EU countries will work together to synchronize their armies –Lighter, more specialized and technologically advanced armed forces for rapid reaction to security threats, peacekeeping, and post conflict reconstruction –Emphasis on naval power and transport capabilities –The EU relation within NATO: A second pillar next to the U.S. ?

The EU as a global actor by 2030 Conclusion –The EU will still be a relevant international actor It reforms it CFSP decision making procedure along “Communautarian” lines, instead of purely intergovernmental The EU is the perfect example of conflict prevention, so export that expertise It will be heavily relied upon by the UN and others as a peacekeeper and nation-builder It will keep strong ties with the U.S., but more independent course, interact with other powers and act as mediator Its role in NATO will likely increase