Measuring VET participation by SES over time Tom Karmel and Patrick Lim CEET conference, 1 November 2013

SEIFA Index of relative socio-economic disadvantage (IRSD) Index of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage (IRSAD) Index of education and occupation (IEO) Index of economic resources (IER)

Population (POA) Population (SLA) Quintile Total Quintiles aint quintiles

15 to 19 Year Olds 20 to 24 Year Olds Quintile 2006 POA 2006 SLA 2006 POA 2006 SLA And even worse for particular age groups

2006 using 2006 Quintiles (SLA) Qualification12345 Diploma and above Certificate IV Certificate III Certificate II Certificate I Non-AQF Module Only Total VET participation rates for years, 2006

2011 using 2011 quintiles (SLA) Qualification12345 Diploma and above Certificate IV Certificate III Certificate II Certificate I Non-AQF Module Only Total VET participation rates for years, 2011

2006 using 2006 Quintiles Qualification12345 Diploma and above Certificate IV Certificate III Certificate II Certificate I Non-AQF Module Only Total VET participation rates for years, 2006

2011 using 2011 quintiles Qualification12345 Diploma and above Certificate IV Certificate III Certificate II Certificate I Non-AQF Module Only Total VET participation for years, 2011

2011 Quintiles 2006 Quintiles 12345UnknownTotal Unknown SEIFA against 2011 SEIFA (IRSD) by POA

2011 Quintiles 2006 Quintiles12345UnknownTotal Unknown SEIFA against 2011 SEIFA (IRSD), by SLA

Apparent and actual educational participation rates in a hypothetical example.

Quintile 2006 collection using collection using 2006 quintiles 2011 collection using 2011 quintiles Total 15 to 19 year olds year old VET participation rates, 2006 and 2011, POA

Quintile Actual change Estimated change 2006 – 2011 using 2006 quintiles Difference between actual change and estimated change % of actual change Total 15 to 19 year olds years VET participation rate, changes between 2006 and 2011, POA

Actual and apparent changes in VET participation for age by SES quintiles, , SEIFA (ISRD), POA (percentage points)

Quintile Actual Change Estimated change using the 2006 Difference between actual and estimated change % of actual change Total 15 to 19 year olds years VET participation rate, changes between 2006 and 2011, SLA

Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged years, by SES quintile, 2011

Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged years, by SES quintile, 2011

Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged years, by SES quintile, 2011

Actual and apparent changes in VET participation for age by SES quintiles, , SEIFA (ISRD), SLA (percentage points)

More work to be done Same exercise for higher education Figure out how to analyse accuracy of estimates at qualification level

Summary Quintiles ain’t quintiles. Important to calculate participation rates rather than use 20% as a reference. Equity issue in VET not obvious. In respect of SEIFA, level of regional classification matters. SEIFA at SLA level seems ok, but need to test methodology every census.