BTV and AHS risk associated with wind streams Beatriz Martínez López *, José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno Animal Health Department Veterinary School University Complutense of Madrid (UCM), Spain SECOND ANNUAL MEETING Giulianova, Teramo, 9-11 December 2008

0.5 microgram Source: SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE 0.1 to 10 microgram Barnum et al to 6.1 microgram Perez et al. 2006

Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008 Pathway diagram Culicoides survives Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Culicoides becomes infected with BTV BT symptoms DeathRecovery Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind

Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008 Pathway diagram Culicoides survives Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind BT symptoms DeathRecovery Culicoides becomes infected with BTV Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind

Culicoides survives Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides becomes infected with BTV BT symptoms DeathRecovery Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008 Pathway diagram Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind

Culicoides survives Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides becomes infected with BTV BT symptoms DeathRecovery Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008 Pathway diagram Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind

Culicoides survives Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides becomes infected with BTV BT symptoms DeathRecovery Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008 Pathway diagram Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind

Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008 Pathway diagram Culicoides survives Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides becomes infected with BTV BT symptoms DeathRecovery Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind

Culicoides survives Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides becomes infected with BTV BT symptoms DeathRecovery Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008 Pathway diagram Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind

 Prediction of Culicoides introduction into Europe by wind using the Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) ? ?? ?? ? Objectives Wind + Particle vehiculation + Deposition

DREAM: Dust REgional Atmospheric Model Source:

 There is a significant association between the dust introduction into Europe and the Culicoides introduction by wind. Culicoides entrance Dust introduction Hypothesis

1. Data collection 1. Data collection: Introduction of dust into Europe*  Surface concentration (μg/m 3 /day) 2. Data analysis: Temporal and spatial analysis of dust introduction into Europe* Outbreaks in N. Africa + Wind  Outbreaks in Europe*? Materials and Methods *Only Spain has been analysed in detail (future work would include other European Countries)

1. Data collection

Cell: 0.5 x 0.5 degrees 1. Data collection

*amount of dust (μg = micrograms) per volume (m 3 ) near to the soil (<2000 meters).  Surface concentration (μg/m 3 /day)*  Dry dust deposition (g/m 2 /day)  Wet dust deposition (g/m 2 /day)  Optical depth  Dust load (g/m 2 ) ( ) 544,215 records 1. Data collection

 Surface concentration (μg/m 3 /day)*  Dry dust deposition (g/m 2 /day)  Wet dust deposition (g/m 2 /day)  Optical depth  Dust load (g/m 2 ) ( ) 544,215 records *amount of dust (μg = micrograms) per volume (m 3 ) near to the soil (<1000 meters). 1. Data collection

 Temporal and spatial analysis of dust introduction into Europe*: When and where:  Time series analysis  ArcGIS  Is there any correlation between outbreak ocurrence in North Africa, dust introduction and outbreak ocurrence in Europe? 2. Data analysis

Preliminary Results

Surface concentration (μg/m 3 )

Andalucía Balearic Islands

April - July

April - July

BTV introduction in Balearic Islands Dust in Baleares Outbreaks* in Baleares Outbreaks in Tunisia Outbreaks in Argelia Outbreaks in Morrocco BTV-2 *Only primary outbreaks in Baleares are considered 104 outbreaks 7628 Number of outbreaks

BTV introduction in Balearic Islands Dust in Baleares Outbreaks* in Baleares Outbreaks in Tunisia Outbreaks in Argelia Outbreaks in Morrocco *Only primary outbreaks in Baleares are considered 4 Number of outbreaks Undereporting? Winds from Sardinia? 4 outbreaks BTV-4

Winds from Sardinia?

Dust in Andalucía Outbreaks* in Andalucía Outbreaks in Tunisia Outbreaks in Argelia Outbreaks in Morrocco BTV-4 BTV introduction in Andalucía *Only primary outbreaks in Andalucía are considered outbreaks

Dust in Andalucía Outbreaks* in Andalucía Outbreaks in Tunisia Outbreaks in Argelia Outbreaks in Morrocco BTV-4 BTV introduction in Andalucía *Only primary outbreaks in Andalucía are considered Undereporting? Overwintering?

 Culicoides introduction is most likely to occur in the south-east part of Spain and Canary Islands (sporadically in Balearic Islands)  Highest Culicoides introduction may occur between April and July  Outbreaks in N. Africa + Wind  High risk for introduction of BTV (AHS) infected Culicoides Balearic Islands Outbreaks in Argelia/Tunisia  Risk for Balearic Islands Andalucía Outbreaks in Morocco  Risk for Andalucía  (Only when high number of outbreaks in N. Africa occur???) Conclusions

Future work (2009)  Complete analysis of data for all Europe and for years 2007 and 2008  Study the correlation between dust introduction and outbreak ocurrence (include variables such as Tª, relative humidity, etc.)  Include winds from other countries (not Africa) coming into Europe  Analysis of the spatial origin of the wind and probability of Culicoides survival during the wind vehiculation  Future modeling specifically for Culicoides introduction: “ DREAM ” adaptation for Culicoides  ” CREAM ”??

Thanks for your attention !