National Board of Trade Lena Johansson Director General

National Board of Trade Agency for foreign trade and trade policy Promote free trade and transparent rules Our main task is to improve opportunities for international trade

An effective Internal Market Objectives An effective Internal Market An open trade policy in the EU A strong multilateral international trading system

Ljuset är proportionell mot den ekonomiska aktiviteten

Ljuset (ekonomiska aktiviteten) är mest intensiv vid kusten och navigerbara floder

Var ”ljusnar” det och varför? - Framförallt i länder som integrerar sig i världsekonomin, t.ex. BRICs

The Swedish Government: ….. create growth and employment in Sweden by promoting free trade and dismantling of trade barriers

Developing countries Analyses of developing countries perspective Competence and capacity building programmes in developing countries Open Trade Gate Sweden

International trade and development Why do people trade? Situation and developments in world trade Trade and Climate Change Development perspective Swedish trade patterns and developments Trade policies

Free trade Trade creates welfare Sweden is very dependant on international trade

Swedish trade dependance Exports/GDP > 50 % Imports/GDP = almost 50 %

Källa: WTO

Exports of goods and services, percent of GDP (1960-2007)

Exports/GDP Global 10 % 20 % 30 % Sweden 14 % 35 % > 50 % 1960 1996 2006 Global 10 % 20 % 30 % Sweden 14 % 35 % > 50 %

Källa: UNCTAD

Foreign investments/GDP 1995 2005 Global 10 % 24 % Sweden 30 % > 50 %

Imports of goods and services increase faster then GDP in almost every country FDI´s grow even faster

International trade is still regional Total trade between North America, Asia and Europé = 23 % of world trade Trade within the three regions= 53 % of world trade - Europe 31 % (single market 25 %) - Asia 14 % - North America 8 %

Inter-regional handel 787mdr $ (6 %) 477mdr $ (4 %) 103 mdr $ (1 %) 4243mdr $ (31%) 1108 mdr $ (8%) 951 mdr $ (7 %) 1889mdr $ (14%) 93,4 mdr $ (1%) 282 mdr $ (2%) 40,5 mdr $ (0,3 %) 122 mdr $ (1 %) 315 mdr $ (2 %) 1148 mdr $ (8%) Intra regional handel Inter-regional handel Källa: WTO International Trade Statistics 2008

Källa: UN comtrade database (Wits) EU-27:s intra- och extra regional varuhandel som andel av total handel 1962-2008 Källa: UN comtrade database (Wits)

Källa: UN comtrade database (WITS) Sveriges intra- och extra-handel med varor som procentandel av total handel 1962-2008 Källa: UN comtrade database (WITS)

Här ser vi en bild av hur den ekonomiska krisen slog mot exporten Här ser vi en bild av hur den ekonomiska krisen slog mot exporten. Sverige fick, om ni följer den svarta linjen, inte en lika kraftig svacka som USA, Tyskland och Finland. Totalt har svensk export klarat sig ungefär lika bra som exporten i EU som helhet. Men även om svensk ekonomi som helhet går bättre än många andra länders så har återhämtningen för exporten gått långsammare än för de övriga länderna i denna jämförese. Källa: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, Tulli, Finland, Eurostat och SCB

The public opinion Support for international trade is strong, but the trend is negative? During this period, we have seen a trend of decreasing trade barriers and more integration between countries from trade in goods, service and investments. Support for international trade is strong. When asked the question ”is trade good for you country” , the majority of people answer yes in some of the important trading counties in the world. (when asked, in another study, about their support for imports specifically, the level of support was a lot lower. But public support for international trade seems to be decreasing. We see this trend especially in the US. So I will end this presentation with this small questions mark. What does this mean for the future of trade? The Doha Round has run into problem, and has no been able to meet any of the deadlines set. With an economic crisis, the their might be pressure on governments to implement protectionist policies. With less support for trade, it might be difficult for government to resist this. Out next speaker will shed some light on what has happened in this regards.

The public opinion (2) Important to note that support for imports much smaller than for trade

Decreasing protectionism, 1995-2007 25 new WTO-members Decrease in tarrifs and quotas Trade facilitiation at the border World trade encreased by 170 % Trade in services increasing Liberalized rules for foreign investments

Imports of goods and services increase faster then GDP in almost every country FDI´s grow even faster

been dramatically liberalised Conclusion: Trade policy has, almost by any measure, been dramatically liberalised almost everywhere since 1995

Trends in world trade – long term Global market place Global Value Chains Goods -> Services Servicification e-commerce Other tendencies - short term? Crises effects, politics New protectionism Public procurement, internationally, EU, Sweden, locally Local production Climate concerns? Development aspects Emerging markets

Export by regions (1963 och 2007) 50

Fragmenterad produktion “The first unbundling” – Baldwin Greater understanding for fragmentation and trade statistics IO for a deeper understanding of the dependency in Swedish production and exports on imports VS measures share of imports in exports, direct and indirect M based on IO-tables Incl. services + goods and services based on their use Doesn’t measure the whole fragmentation chain, but shows M-dependency Olika arbetsinsatser genomförs på samma plats (i samma land)

Fragmenterad produktion “The second unbundling” – Baldwin “Trade in tasks” - arbetsuppgifterna sprids ut över världen Fragmentering kan ske på flera olika sätt – inom eller utom företaget, i hemlandet eller i utlandet Offshoring och outsourcing leder till handel med insatser Greater understanding for fragmentation and trade statistics IO for a deeper understanding of the dependency in Swedish production and exports on imports VS measures share of imports in exports, direct and indirect M based on IO-tables Incl. services + goods and services based on their use Doesn’t measure the whole fragmentation chain, but shows M-dependency

A typical Swedish motor vehicle is only 50 % Swedish… Made in Sweden? A typical Swedish motor vehicle is only 50 % Swedish… Trade statistics harder to understand Swedish car not only produced in Sweden, a typical Swedish car only 50 % Swedish Ipod China – US, authors calculate only a few percent go to China Buy American - Boeing - 43 subcontractors, 135 production facilities around the world. 70 % of components outside the US. Jobs Lamy - “In the past, goods were made in Mexico, Mauritius or Malaysia. Today, goods are made in the world” Källa: Newhouse, John and A. A, Knopf (2007), Boeing vs Airbus, The inside story of the greatest international competetion in business, New York, USA

One third of Sweden´s exports consists of imports

Källa: Egna beräkningar baserade på SCB:s Input-Outputtabeller

Swedish exports are not only made in Sweden OECD-average: 31 % Inputs - goods and services from EU countries and third countries. Our 33,5 % is slightly higher than the OECD calculated average of 31 %. Compare Luxembourg and Russia The imported content of exports rose from 30 % (1995) to 33,5 % (2005) Swedish exports ”less Swedish” than before. True for almost all sectors

Sectors Tjänstesektorer

En Boeing Dreamliner : Made in America? 43 subcontractors Spread on 135 production facilities in the world Among other things, wings made in Japan, the engines of in the U.S. and Great Britain, the doors in France and Sweden 70 % of the components are manufacturesd outside the U.S. ”Källa: Newhouse, John and A. A, Knopf (2007), Boeing vs Airbus, The inside story of the greatest international competetion in business, New York, USA

Ett växande avstånd mellan företagens verklighet och handelspolitiken “While the nature of global trade has changed, trade regulation in the EU and other OECD economies has remained largely the same.”

“Everybody is in Services” – The Impact of Servicification in Manufacturing on Trade and Trade Policy (under tryck)

E-commerce New options New barriers Cloud computing

Trends in world trade – long term Global market place Global Value Chains Goods -> Services Servicification e-commerce But also Other tendencies - short term? Crises effects, politics New protectionism Public procurement, internationally, EU, Sweden, locally Local production Climate concerns? Development aspects Emerging markets

The relationship between international trade and transport modes Andel av världshandeln i vikt (2006) Källa: UNCTAD (2008)

CO2 emissions by sector and the transport sector Källor: IEA (2011) och OECD (2010b)

Emission intensity for different modes CO2-utsläpp per ton-km Källa: Cristea m.fl. (2011)

How does trade effect CO2 emissions? Transports   Production: location, methods Innovations and technical developments are spread

A surgery Made in Sweden? A commute Made in Hong Kong?

Swedish trade with other EU countries Exports 61 % Imports 72 %

Källa: SCB

Källa: SCB

Varuexport till Sveriges fem största exportländer Källa: SCB

Varuimport från Sveriges fem största importländer Källa: SCB

What companies regard as their home market?

Vad hindrar att företagen ser EU som sin hemmamarknad?

Ser företagen den inre marknaden som ett hot eller möjlighet?

SOLVIT Centre Provides assistance to companies and private citizens encountering trade barriers Free of charge

Sveriges varuexport och världsmarknadsandel

Swedish companies’ problem with exports (%) Source: National Board of Trade (2010)

Larger companies experience increased trade barriers Do you find that customs duties or other trade barriers have increased since the start of the financial crisis? Yes No Don’t know Total 7.0 87.9 5.1 Size of company Small 6.6 88.0 5.4 Medium-sized 9.4 88.1 2.5 Large 7.9 85.0 7.2

WTO Members (153) Applicant countries (30)

Key issues in Doha round Agriculture Industrial Goods, NAMA Services Trade

Genomsnittlig tullnivå för industrivaror i i-länder

Tullnivåer i i-länder och u-länder

Notified to GATT/WTO and in force FTAs notified and active (1948-2008) 100 200 300 400 500 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Number of FTAs Notified to GATT/WTO Notified to GATT/WTO and in force WTO is founded Source: WTO RTA gateway

EU:s new approach in FTAs Global Europe EU:s economic interest Abolish all tariffs and other import restrictions Include services and investments Non Tariff Measures Sectors Sustainable development Agreement with South Korea

EU trade policy Common policy EU acts as one part in WTO Customs Union Import Quotas Antidumping and other safeguards Free Trade Agreements Common Agicultural Policy, CAP

“Nations do not trade, nor do sectors. It is firms that trade” “… This simple truth makes it clear that understanding the firm-level facts is essential to good policy-making in Europe. The view that it is important to focus on the firm rather than the sector is the single most important message of recent developments in international economics”. Citat från EU-sponsrade forskningsprojektet: European Firms in a Global Economy (EFIGE)

The National Board of Trade reports on global value chains 2007: Adding value to the European Economy 2010: Made in Sweden? (engelska och svenska) 2010: At your service/Till er tjänst 2010: Servicification of Swedish manufacturing 2012: Business reality and trade policy – Closing the gap www.kommers.se/verksamhetsomraden/Utrikeshandel/

Trade related Development Cooperation Contribute to developing countries trade possibilities and trade negotiation capacity

Surveys and publications Reports in Swedish and English Website: www.kommers.se

www.kommers.se