Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering KURT PETERSEN MARCUS ABRAHAMSSON A STUDY OF THE PERFORMANCE OF RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS BY SWEDISH PUBLIC AGENCIES

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering Risk and vulnerability analysis in the Swedish crisis management system Requirement for (almost) all public agencies, Act 2002 Purpose –Provide basis for decisions concerning risk and vulnerability reduction Scope –Identification of hazards, estimation of likelihood and consequences –Capability to respond to hazardous events/crises Should constitute a ”system” –Vertical and horizontal integration

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering Purpose and motivation New detailed requirements have been issued in 2010 – increase comparability and interoperability –The following steps should be included in the RVAs: Identification of vital societal functions Analysis of critical dependencies, and Analysis of capability to respond to emergencies The requirements stipulate ”what” but not exactly ”how”, open to local decisions Explorative purpose: –What methods, approaches and perspectives have been used and what challenges have been encountered?

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering Purpose and motivation According to the new requirements the following steps should be included in the RVAs: –Identification of vital societal functions –Analysis of critical dependencies, and –Analysis of capability to respond to emergencies The requirements stipulate ”what” but not ”how” Purpose/research questions: –What methods, approaches and perspectives have been used for the three steps (if at all) and how have concepts been interpreted? –What challanges have the agencies encountered and what support have they received and are they in need of? Underlying motivation If we want to improve the RVA-system we need to understand (and be sensitive to) the current practises, challanges, etc.

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering Method Semi-structured interviews Sample of 25 public agencies (municipalities, county administration boards, national authorities) –Choice was based on acheiving good representation in terms of size, location and function 5 interviewers with a common interview guide Persons that were central for the agency’s RVA-work were interviewed Documentation of RVA used in some cases to supplement the interviews

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering Results and discussion: Themes Concepts and definitions The RVA process Approaches for identifying the vital societal functions Approaches for identifying critical dependencies Approaches to assess capabilities Participation Support, guidance and feedback

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering Results and discussion Two perspectives on definitions: –Are unnecessary or can even complicate the analysis –Is key to proper communication Some of the concepts difficult to interpret – especially capability Use of the concepts need to be consistent accros the RVAs Concepts and definitions The RVA process Approaches for identifying vital societal functions Approaches for identifying critical dependencies Approaches to assess capabilities Participation Support, guidance and feedback

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering Results and discussion Concepts and definitions The RVA process Approaches for identifying the vital societal functions Approaches for identifying critical dependencies Approaches to assess capabilities Participation Support, guidance and feedback Used approaches: –Scenario-specific (power shortage, pandemics) –Scenario-independent –Combination of above …may give somewhat different results Many seemed to not have understood the purpose of this step

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering Results and discussion Concepts and definitions The RVA process Approaches for identifying vital societal functions Approaches for identifying critical dependencies Approaches to assess capabilities Participation Support, guidance and feedback Approaches/arguments: –Not explicitly addressed but captured in the scenario discussions –Done for single units but not for the ”whole” –Taliored methods are needed and used Closely related to vital societal functions and should be treated conjointly

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering Results and discussion Concepts and definitions The RVA process Approaches for identifying vital societal functions Approaches for identifying critical dependencies Approaches to assess capabilities Participation Support, guidance and feedback Workshops with internal representatives vs. self- evaluations –Large interactions vs. many involved The organization’s capability vs. the capability in the geographic area National capability given non-specific underlying capabilities

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering Overall conclusions and reflections Wide variety of approaches and views Key concepts seem to be used differently The different steps of the RVA often fragmented into stand- alone parts –Guidance of how to integrate are needed Need for method development – especially concerning capability assessment Need for a system ensuring integration throughout themes, RVA, capability, societal functions etc County administration boards are key to get the RVA- system to work

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering Future/on-going work Detailed studies of all RVA reports in two counties – effect of the new legislation –Comparable? –Interoperable? Survey with all municipalities in Sweden (self-evaluation) – benefits of RVA? The findings are intended for influencing future regulation and method development

Lunds universitet / Avdelningen för brandteknik och riskhantering Results and discussion Concepts and definitions The RVA process Approaches for identifying vital societal functions Approaches for identifying critical dependencies Approaches to assess capabilities Participation Support, guidance and feedback RVAs often fragmented into stand-alone parts Contribution by external actors Participation is still rather limited Limited background and training