Does energy bring the Baltic Sea region states together? Toms Rostoks University of Latvia

Research project Funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers, Latvian Institute of International Affairs and Friedrich Ebert Foundation Funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers, Latvian Institute of International Affairs and Friedrich Ebert Foundation Implemented by researchers and research institutes from all BSR states, except Denmark Implemented by researchers and research institutes from all BSR states, except Denmark

Research question Do countries’ choices with regard to energy issues pull them together or pull them apart? Do countries’ choices with regard to energy issues pull them together or pull them apart?  Is there more or less cooperation among the BSR countries because of energy concerns?

Each author aims at analyzing: Particular energy mix of his/her country Particular energy mix of his/her country National energy strategy of his/her country National energy strategy of his/her country Main actors involved in the energy sector Main actors involved in the energy sector Regional implications of particular country’s energy choices – more energy cooperation or less energy cooperation? Regional implications of particular country’s energy choices – more energy cooperation or less energy cooperation?

Background factors Energy influences and is influenced by a set of other aspects of interstate relations that already exist in the BSR: history; large/small states; energy importers/exporters; established democracies/new democracies/ non- democracies; outside actors/state actors/subregional actors; etc. Energy influences and is influenced by a set of other aspects of interstate relations that already exist in the BSR: history; large/small states; energy importers/exporters; established democracies/new democracies/ non- democracies; outside actors/state actors/subregional actors; etc. Perceptions are important Perceptions are important

Preliminary findings Study not finished yet, but there are some tentative results Study not finished yet, but there are some tentative results Reporting broad tendencies rather than conclusions on particular country cases Reporting broad tendencies rather than conclusions on particular country cases

Some findings Consumer and producer countries are inevitably pulled together, but pull factors can run contrary to general trends in interstate relations Consumer and producer countries are inevitably pulled together, but pull factors can run contrary to general trends in interstate relations Consumer and producer countries are inevitably pulled apart by their differences in interest with regard to supply and demand issues Consumer and producer countries are inevitably pulled apart by their differences in interest with regard to supply and demand issues

Some findings (cont.) Major energy exporters in the BSR – Norway and Russia – have their own concerns over energy supplies, usage and investment Major energy exporters in the BSR – Norway and Russia – have their own concerns over energy supplies, usage and investment Some BSR countries do not seem to have clearly defined energy policies and strategies Some BSR countries do not seem to have clearly defined energy policies and strategies Investment in energy (extraction and transportation) infrastructure is necessary Investment in energy (extraction and transportation) infrastructure is necessary

Some findings (cont.) Politicization and complexity of energy sector allows various actors to come to contradictory conclusions on almost anything Politicization and complexity of energy sector allows various actors to come to contradictory conclusions on almost anything Element of competition for best energy deals is quite strong as all countries would like to acquire some degree of control and self-sufficiency Element of competition for best energy deals is quite strong as all countries would like to acquire some degree of control and self-sufficiency

Some findings (cont.) There is a danger that competition and politicization result in a “deal” that is far worse than optimal (“stag hunt problem”) There is a danger that competition and politicization result in a “deal” that is far worse than optimal (“stag hunt problem”) Climate change and CO2 emission considerations are important drivers of several BSR countries energy strategies Climate change and CO2 emission considerations are important drivers of several BSR countries energy strategies

Some findings (cont.) In order to balance the asymmetric relationship with the energy exporting countries, consumer countries try to be “more than consumers” In order to balance the asymmetric relationship with the energy exporting countries, consumer countries try to be “more than consumers” Baltic “energy island” is a very specific problem, and Baltic states’ aspirations do not extend much further than building interconnections with the neighbouring countries Baltic “energy island” is a very specific problem, and Baltic states’ aspirations do not extend much further than building interconnections with the neighbouring countries