1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT WHY ? Do we need better emission estimations and projections? Workshop on GHG Emissions from Agriculture - Copenhagen, February 2003 European Commission Lars Müller DG ENV.E.1

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT EU Climate Change policy frame work  Climate change high priority  6 th EAP  SDS (Gothenburg Coucil)  EU committed to Kyoto Protocol  Ratification March 2002  Entry into force ?? in 2003 ?? (more than 100 countries have ratified / 43.9%)  Compliance means comply with:  Reduction committment  REPORTING obligations

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT The bubble  EU is fulfilling its commitments jointly (Kyoto Protocol Art.4)  EC is Party to KP (as are MS)  Its the Community who has to meet the target -8% (international law)  MS have national burden sharing targets (legally binding by ratification decision (2002/358/EC))

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT Vital question ARE WE ON TRACK ?

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT Monitoring Mechanism Obligations of Member States: publish and implement a national programme (And to forward it to the commission within 3 months of its adoption or update) report annually their inventories to the commission (by 31 Dec year N : provisional data for year N-1 and final data year N-2), report on their most recent projections (for )

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT Monitoring Mechanism (cont.)  Community is required to submit to UNFCCC : –annually, a “national inventory” –periodically, a “national communication” including material relevant for calculations of global emission trends and specific estimates of the effects of policies and measures  Commission reports to Council and Parliament  Annual assessment of actual progress and projected progress

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT Ex-post evaluation:

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT Third Phase in Monitoring Mechanism  1993 first Council Decision on GHG Monitoring  Council Decision (1999)296/EC is current basis  NEW proposal 2003: COM (2003) 51 final Implementing Marrakech Accords Inventory system (KP 5.1) Reflecting experiences (problem area: Projections) Including FLEX-Mex Further details in implementing provisions

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT Sectoral share

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT Workshop on energy related projections Feb Some examples of recommendations: –sensitivity analysis to increase robustness of projections –better specification of scenarios –share Good Practice in evaluation of the effects of good practice –report minimum information on assumptions or model –indicate the strengths and weaknesses of the models used.....

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT Some provocative questions: Estimating of agricultural emissions is well established in all the 15 MS, BUT  estimates are more uncertain than other key- sources:  Can‘t we provide better quantification of the uncertainties as we should under KP rules ?

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT Different methodological choices by MS  In all cases inevitable?  always deliberately taken on the basis of objective differences ?  Or sometimes just arbitrary ?  Can we develop a common approach to methan conversion rates and/or emission factors?  Can we come closer to enhanced livestock characterisation ?  To what extent do we need to harmonise choices of methodologies in the EU?

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT S ome more questions:  How can we increase the comparability of projections?  CAP has major influence: how is this reflected in national projections ?  Can we help that MS at least comply with all FCCC /KP and IPCC guidelines ?  Is there scope for enhanced networking and exchange of Good Practice amongst ourselves?

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT Possible Results:  Better understanding what is different and why.  Better understanding where we could perhaps have even more in common.  Less inconsistency ??  Recommendations for further work on EU level i n the MM (?) and on national level ?  Recommendations for new common standards ? ? ? ?  Recommendations for the future MM implementing provisions ?

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT Thank you Have a nice and revealing workshop Further info on the new proposal monitoring_mechanisms.htm