Physical gas flows across Europe and diversity of gas supply Jack Forster (DECC)

Physical gas flows across Europe and diversity of gas supply Talk is framed around informing policy through improved methodology Where did we start? How did we improve this to help inform policy on gas infrastructure resilience? Where do we want to take this in the future?

Where did we start? Previous analysis on physical gas flows across Europe Gas map (gas flows in/out of EU Member States) Bubble chart showing self-sufficiency, relative consumption and diversity of imports (IEA data)

Where did we start?

What are the important questions? Prior to further analysis, it was key to speak to policy colleagues and economists What did they want to know? -How resilient is UK’s infrastructure (esp. during peak demand time)? -How many pipelines/storage sites etc. are there? -How does the UK compare to other EU Member States? -How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss (e.g. Russia turns off the tap)?

How did we address these questions? Comparative infrastructure assessment What are the sources of gas supply? -Pipeline imports -LNG terminal imports -Gas storage supply -Indigenous production Universal metric required for these imports Data needs to be available

How did we address these questions? Universal metric = Peak flow (PF) Peak flow = maximum output from pipeline in volume per time (bcm per day) Can be summed by source and by country Allows comparison across EU Member States Can be compared to peak demand Easy to understand

How did we address these questions?

Chart is useful illustrative tool but does not act as a metric for comparison We used a simple PF - 1, PF - 2 metric Similar to N-1 measure in EU Regulation No.994/2010 therefore familiar to Policy

How did we address these questions? Where: PF = Peak Flow (bcm/day) EP max = Peak capacity of entry points (bcm/day) P max = Peak capacity for each indigenous production pipeline (bcm/day) S max = Peak output for each storage facility (bcm/day) LNG max = Peak output for each LNG terminal (bcm/day) D max = Average 2012 peak gas demand (bcm/day) I max = Peak daily capacity of single largest supply route (bcm/day)

How did we address these questions?

How resilient is UK’s infrastructure (esp. during peak demand time)? -UK has a range of gas sources -Peak supply able to meet peak demand twice over in 2012, even after removal of two largest gas supplies How does the UK compare to other EU Member States? -Sixth most resilient Member State (PF-1, PF-2) -UK has most diverse range of sources -UK has less storage than other top 5 gas demanding Member States

What are the important questions? Prior to further analysis, it was key to speak to Policy colleagues and economists What did they want to know? -How resilient is UK’s infrastructure (esp. during peak demand time)? -How does the UK compare to other EU Member States? -How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss (e.g. Russia turns off the tap)?

How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss? So far, we have looked at within-country infrastructure disruptions What about EU-wide supply disruptions? European gas supply % from Russia (116 bcm) -21% from Norway (102 bcm) -8% North Africa (Algeria, Libya) -12% LNG (77 bcm, Qatar, Nigeria, Algeria) Clear risks here

UKRAINE

Supply country EU MS A Supply country EU MS B EU MS C EU MS D LNG How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss?

With the loss of a supply route, how much spare capacity is there in the system? -Gas sources -Max flow -Connections between countries -Time of year (demand, storage) Can we model this system?

How resilient is the UK/EU in case of future major supply loss?

Conclusions We now have good understanding of within- EU Member State infrastructure resilience, and appropriate methodology for a cross- country comparison of resilience Much improved on previous work in terms of informing policy Looking to the future, we need to examine EU-wide supply disruptions: this is the hot topic

Conclusions

Initial Results

Initial Results: German Gas Supply (No Russian Gas)