BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 131 Binomial Distributions

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 132 u Fixed number n of observations u The n observations are independent u Each observation falls into one of just two categories –may be labeled success and failure u The probability of success, p, is the same for each observation Binomial Setting

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 133 u In a shipment of 100 televisions, how many are defective? –counting the number of successes (defective televisions) out of 100 u A new procedure for treating breast cancer is tried on 25 patients; how many patients are cured? –counting the number of successes (cured patients) out of 25 Binomial Setting Examples

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 134 u Let X = the count of successes in a binomial setting. The distribution of X is the binomial distribution with parameters n and p. –n is the number of observations –p is the probability of a success on any one observation –X takes on whole values between 0 and n Binomial Distribution

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 135 –not all counts have binomial distributions v trials (observations) must be independent v the probability of success, p, must be the same for each observation –if the population size is MUCH larger than the sample size n, then even when the observations are not independent and p changes from one observation to the next, the change in p may be so small that the count of successes (X) has approximately the binomial distribution Binomial Distribution

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 136 Case Study Inspecting Switches An engineer selects a random sample of 10 switches from a shipment of 10,000 switches. Unknown to the engineer, 10% of the switches in the full shipment are bad. The engineer counts the number X of bad switches in the sample.

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 137 Case Study Inspecting Switches u X (the number of bad switches) is not quite binomial –Removing one switch changes the proportion of bad switches remaining in the shipment (selections are not independent) u However, removing one switch from a shipment of 10,000 changes the makeup of the remaining 9,999 very little –the distribution of X is very close to the binomial distribution with n=10 and p=0.1

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 138 u Find the probability that a binomial random variable takes any particular value –P(x successes out of n observations) = ? –need to add the probabilities for the different ways of getting exactly x successes in n observations Binomial Probabilities

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 139 Each offspring hatched from a particular type of reptile has probability 0.2 of surviving for at least one week. If 6 offspring of these reptiles are hatched, find the probability that exactly 2 of the 6 will survive for at least one week. Label an offspring that survives with S for success and one that dies with F for failure. P(S) = 0.2 and P(F) = 0.8. Binomial Probabilities Example

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1310 (1)First, find probability that the two survivors are the first two offspring: Using the Multiplication Rule: P(SSFFFF)= (0.2)(0.2)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8) = (0.2) 2 (0.8) 4 = Binomial Probabilities Example

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1311 (2)Second, find the number of possible arrangements for getting two successes and four failures: SSFFFF SFSFFF SFFSFF SFFFSF SFFFFS FSSFFF FSFSFF FSFFSF FSFFFS FFSSFF FFSFSF FFSFFS FFFSSF FFFSFS FFFFSS Binomial Probabilities Example There are 15 of these, and each has the same probability of occurring: (0.2) 2 (0.8) 4. Thus, the probability of observing exactly 2 successes out of 6 is: P(X=2) = 15(0.2) 2 (0.8) 4 =

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1312 u The number of ways of arranging k successes among n observations is given by the binomial coefficient Binomial Coefficient where n! is n factorial (see next slide). –the binomial coefficient is read n choose k.

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1313 u For any positive whole number n, its factorial n! is Factorial Notation n! = n (n 1) (n 2) –Also, 0! = 1 by definition. u Example: 6! = 6·5·4·3·2·1 = 720, and from the previous example:

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1314 u If X has the binomial distribution with n observations and probability p of success on each observation, the possible values of X are 0, 1, 2, …, n. If k is any one of these values, then Binomial Probabilities

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1315 Case Study Inspecting Switches The number X of bad switches has approximately the binomial distribution with n=10 and p=0.1. Find the probability of getting 1 or 2 bad switches in a sample of 10.

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1316 u If X has the binomial distribution with n observations and probability p of success on each observation, then the mean and standard deviation of X are Mean and Standard Deviation

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1317 Case Study Inspecting Switches The number X of bad switches has approximately the binomial distribution with n=10 and p=0.1. Find the mean and standard deviation of this distribution. µ = np = (10)(0.1) = 1 the probability of each being bad is one tenth; so we expect (on average) to get 1 bad one out of the 10 sampled

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1318 Case Study Inspecting Switches Probability Histogram n=10, p=0.1

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1319 u The formula for binomial probabilities becomes cumbersome as the number of trials n increases u As the number of trials n increases, the binomial distribution gets close to a Normal distribution –when n is large, Normal probability calculations can be used to approximate binomial probabilities Normal Approximation to the Binomial

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1320 u The Normal distribution that is used to approximate the binomial distribution uses the same mean and standard deviation: Normal Approximation to the Binomial u When n is large, a binomial random variable X (with n trials and success probability p) is approximately Normal:

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1321 u As a rule of thumb, we will use the Normal approximation to the Binomial when n is large enough to satisfy the following: np 10 and n(1 p) 10 –Note that these conditions also depend on the value of p (and not just on n) Normal Approximation to the Binomial (Sample Size)

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1322 Nationwide random sample of 2500 adults were asked if they agreed or disagreed with the statement I like buying clothes, but shopping is often frustrating and time-consuming. Suppose that in fact 60% of the population of all adult U.S. residents would say Agree if asked this question. What is the probability that 1520 or more of the sample agree? Case Study Shopping Attitudes Hall, Trish. Shop? Many say Only if I must, New York Times, November 28, 1990.

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1323 Shopping Attitudes u The responses of the 2500 randomly chosen adults (from over 210 million adults) can be taken to be independent. u The number X in the sample who agree has a binomial distribution with n=2500 and p=0.60. u To find the probability that at least 1520 people in the sample agree, we would need to add the binomial probabilities of all outcomes from X=1520 to X=2500…this is not practical. Case Study

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1324 Histogram of 1000 simulated values of the binomial variable X, and the density curve of the Normal distribution with the same mean and standard deviation: Case Study Shopping Attitudes µ = np = 2500(0.6) = 1500 Find probability of getting at least 1520:

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1325 Shopping Attitudes Assuming X has the N(1500, 24.49) distribution [np and n(1 p) are both 10], we have Case Study

BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 1326 Shopping Attitudes u The probability of observing 1520 or more adults in the sample who agree with the statement has been calculated as 20.61% using the Normal approximation to the Binomial. u Using a computer program to calculate the actual Binomial probabilities for all values from 1520 to 2500, the true probability of observing 1520 or more who agree is 21.31% u This is a very good approximation! Case Study