How will we grow? Looking at America to 2050 Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Chapman University, to NCREIF Chicago September, 19, 2013

Long Term Fundamentals U.S. only advanced country with large, growing population Huge resource base Economic system most resilient among advanced countries Affordable housing attracts key demographic groups Dispersion and decentralization is the future

More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth Source: Bureau of the Census, CensusScope

Labor Force Growth U.S. Census Bureau, International Database

Ratio of Elderly to Working Age Population 65 & OVER PERSONS PER YEARS Calculated from UN Population Prospects: 2010 Revision

Future Drivers of Growth Resurgence of Basic Industry Rise of Growth Corridors Role of Immigration Millennials, Seniors and the role of families drive dispersion

Ag Exports Increasing Driven by solid worldwide demand, increased productivity, and strong commodity prices, America’s ag sector has seen overall export levels steadily increase over the past decade. Source: USDA Economic Research Service

Leading in Gas Production

Shale Oil and Gas- Not Just the Bakken

Source: EMSI Complete Employment,

A High Economic Multiplier Activity Generated by $1 of Sector GDP

Source: EMSI Class of Worker Employment,

MAP by Forbes Magazine

JOB GROWTH % CHANGE Research by EMSI, Inc.

Population trends

Domestic Migration by State: LARGEST STATES Data from Census Bueau

Gaining States

Declustering: The New Demography Nationwide people heading to smaller towns and cities Shift to opportunity regions Social trends strongly pro- suburban US Population growth will increase interest “flyover country”

Net Domestic Migration by Population MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: , From Census Bureau Data

PROJECTED CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS Research by Pitney Bowes Corp.

Housing Preferences: Realtors Survey 2011 COMMUNITY PREFERENCE SURVEY Figure 25

Population Growth by Distance from Core US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: Figure 26 Data from Census Bureau

Fastest Growing Counties Over 100, Data from Census Bureau

Groups Shaping our Future Demography – Key demographic groups: Immigrants, Millennials, Aging Boomers --- mostly in suburbs Millennials start to grow up Shift in geography of family: key to long-term growth

Figure 30 White-Non-Hispanic Share of Population US: Source: Bureau of the Census

Source: Myers & Pitkin Foreign Born Share of New Households US: Figure 31

Immigration Rates Top 15 Regions Annual Average, Areas are MSA U.S. Census Population Estimates

Empty Nesters: To Less Dense Areas MAJOR METROPOLITAN & SMALLER AREAS Population in 2010 Compared to in 2000 Source: US Census Data

90% of people over fifty would rather stay put than move - AARP “They don’t want to move to Florida, and they want to stay close to the kids. What they are looking for is a funky suburban development – funky but safe.” - Washington-area developer Jeff Lee. Photo: Vlastula

Millennials rival Boomers U.S. Census Population Projections, 2008

Millennials and the Family 85% plan to get married 77% probably or definitely want children Associated Press/MTV Survey, 2007

Source: Frank N. Magid Associates Millennial Life Style Choices COMPARED TO OLDER GENERATIONS Figure 40 Current Residence Ideal Place to Live

Absolute Change: College Graduates HOUSING AFFORDABILITY: MAJOR METRO AREAS: Metropolitan Areas over Million Population 2007

Change in 5-17 Population: MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREA EXAMPLES Source: Census Data

No matter how many communes anybody invents, the family always creeps back. Margaret Mead

JOELKOTKIN.COM A vivid snapshot of America in 2050 focusing on the evolution of the more intimate units of American society—families, towns, neighborhoods, industries. It is upon the success or failure of these communities that the American future rests.

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