MORS Analytic Agenda Conference Working Brief As of: September 15, 2009

Purpose/Agenda Purpose: Describe the concept for a MORS conference on the Analytic Agenda Agenda: Conference overview Opening plenary Analytic Agenda Deep Dives Special topics Closing plenary Admin/logistics

MORS Analytic Agenda Conference Overview Title: Analytic Agenda Way Ahead Date: March 1-4, 2010 Co-Chairs: Al Sweetser and COL Steve Charbonneau Location: Northrop Grumman Heritage Conference Center, Chantilly, VA Objectives: Broaden understanding of attendees on Analytic Agenda processes and products Develop recommendations for improvement Classification: SECRET REL ACGU (all sessions); an unclassified report will be produced Proposed schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday PM AM Tutorials Analytic Agenda Overview Policy Joint Staff PA&E JDS user’s guide Development Planning Plenary Policy/JS/ PA&E panel Service panel COCOM panel Analytic Agenda Deep Dives Study admin Warfight DPS/MSFD SSSP/ISP Analysis Homeland Defense Tools IW Metrics Data Special Topics Data/Tools mgmt/VV&A C4ISR/IO/EW analysis Development planning Interagency collaboration Outbriefs Deep Dive WGs Special topic WGs Synthesis WG

Organizing Committee Chairs: Al Sweetser, COL Steve Charbonneau Host Organization Rep: Richard Miller, NGC Sponsors: CAPE: Jim Bexfield JS: Lisa Disbrow Services: John Robertson (Army), Tom Neal (Navy), Mike Bailey (USMC), Joe Seidl & Mary Cerniglia-Mosher (USAF) JCS: COL Steve Charbonneau Bulldog: Royce Reiss Working Group Chairs: See next slide

Key Personnel/Working Group Leads Chair Co-Chair Tutorial Mike Wilmer, BAH Plenary CAPT Tom Neal, USN N81 WG 1: Warfight COL Steve Charbonneau, JS J8 MAJ Eric Murphy, JS J8 WG 2: SSSP/ISP John Robertson, G8 WG 3: Homeland Defense/Defense Support to Civil Authorities TBD WG 4: Irregular Warfare LtCol Kirsten Messer, CAPE WG 5: Data/Tools/VV&A WG 6: C4ISR/EW/IO Norm Yarbrough, OSD NII Joe Seidl, USAF A9 WG 7: Development Planning Peter Lierni, OSD AT&L WG 8: Inter-agency/International collaboration Mary Cerniglia-Mosher, USAF A9 Synthesis Annie Patenaude, BAH

Monday, March 1, 2010: Opening Tutorials Organizer: Mike Wilmer, BAH Tentative schedule: 1300: Policy overview/Defense Planning Scenarios 1340: JS overview/Multi-Service Force Deployment Data 1420: Break 1430: CAPE overview/Future Year Analytic Baselines 1515: JDS overview/Data management and Tools 1600: AT&L overview/Development Planning

Tuesday, March 2, 2010: Opening Plenary Organizer: CAPT Tom Neal, N81 Tentative schedule: 0800: Sponsor’s welcome (PA&E and Joint Staff)/Admin announcements 0830 Keynote speaker: TBD 0915 Break Panel discussions 0930: Policy/Joint Staff/PA&E perspective 1030: Service/SOCOM perspective 1130: COCOM/other DoD perspectives (NORTHCOM?, AT&L?, etc.) Each panel begins with presenter highlighting: How does my organization participate in the Analytic Agenda? How does my organization use Analytic Agenda products? What are my recommendations to improve Analytic Agenda processes and products? Q&A follows each group of presenters

Plenary Speaker Bio’s Mr. Jim Bexfield, FS, is the Director of the Study and Analytical Support Division of the Office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He supervises the Studies and Analyses Center, which provides analytical support to all of PA&E; and the Joint Data Support (JDS) office, which collects data to support campaign analyses for the DoD. He is the U.S. representative to the Joint Concepts and Analysis Panel in The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP). Previously he was an analyst with the Institute for Defense Analyses and served in the United States Air Force. During his 23-year career in the Air Force he specialized in operations research, which included serving as Chief Analyst, Air Force Studies and Analyses. In this position, he was the principal military consultant to the general officer who provided analytical support to the Chief of Staff and the Secretary of the Air Force. Mr. Bexfield has been active in the Military Operations Research Society, serving as its president in 1983-85. In 1993 he was elected a Fellow of the Society and in 1994 he received the Vance R. Wanner award. Lisa Disbrow Keynote speaker

Analytic Agenda Deep Dives Timing: end of opening plenary to mid-day Wed Topics/leads Warfight; lead J8 WAD SSSP/ISP; lead Army Homeland Defense; lead TBD Irregular Warfare; lead CAPE Potential questions for discussion: Review DPS: what were the DPS challenges? Was the range of military options explored within the DPS? How can this be addressed? Were significant risks to the defense strategy omitted when a single challenge was selected for MSFD development? How can that risk be mitigated? Review MSFD: describe red/blue/green forces & CONOPS; were there strategy gaps in the DPS that had to be addressed in the MSFD or could not be addressed in the MSFD development? What were they? How do we preclude that from happening? Review Analytical Baseline: were there gaps in the MSFD that had to be addressed in the study? What were they? Were there data sets that were missing that should/could have been included? What were the tools & metrics used? What was the review process? What insights were obtained? What excursions were assessed & why? How could the analysis have been improved? Downstream use: present examples of the subsequent use of this DPS/MSFD/Analytical Baseline; how well did the Analytic Agenda process support CONOPS and capabilities development or programming? How can we improve the feedback mechanism of the Analytic Agenda

WG1, Warfight - Charter and Approach Chair: COL Steve Charbonneau, JS J-8 Co-Chair: Maj Eric Murphy, JS J-8 Synthesis members: Mission Approach Goals

WG 1, Warfight – Draft Schedule Tues PM Wed AM

WG 2, SSSP/ISP - Charter and Approach Chair: John Robertson Co-Chair: Synthesis members: Mission Approach Goals

WG 2, SSSP/ISP – Draft Schedule Tues PM Wed AM

WG 3: Homeland Defense/Defense Support to Civil Authorities - Charter and Approach Chair: TBD Co-Chair: TBD Synthesis members: Mission Approach Goals

WG 3: Homeland Defense/Defense Support to Civil Authorities – Draft Schedule Tues PM Wed AM

WG 4: Irregular Warfare - Charter and Approach Chair: Lt Col Kirsten Messer Co-Chair: Synthesis members: Mission Approach Goals

WG 4: Irregular Warfare – Draft Schedule Tues PM Wed AM

Special Topics Timing: mid-day Wed to mid-day Thurs Topics/leads/agendas Data/Tools mgmt/VV&A/phenomenology: lead TBD How can JDS improve support to the Analytic Agenda and DoD? C4ISR/IO/EW analysis: lead NII; co-lead A9 How can studies better incorporate these capabilities and their effects into analysis? Development planning: lead AT&L How can the Analytic Agenda support early development of new acquisition programs? How would consideration of new capabilities in development affect Analytic Agenda processes? Interagency collaboration: Lead A9; co-lead DHS? How can interagency participation in Analytic Agenda processes be improved? How can representation of interagency capabilities be improved? Should there be an interagency Analytic Agenda?

WG 5, Data/Tools/VV&A - Charter and Approach Chair: Co-Chair: Synthesis members: Mission Approach Goals

WG 5, Data/Tools/VV&A - Charter and Approach Wed PM Thurs AM

WG 6: C4ISR/EW/IO - Charter and Approach Chair: Norm Yarbrough, OSD NII Co-Chair: Synthesis members: Mission Approach Goals

WG 6, Warfight – Draft Schedule Wed PM Thurs AM

WG 7: Development Planning – Charter and Approach Chair: Peter Lierni Co-Chair: Synthesis members: Mission Approach Goals

WG 7: Development Planning – Draft Schedule Tues PM Wed AM

WG 8: Inter-agency/International collaboration - Charter and Approach Chair: Mary Cerniglia-Mosher Co-Chair: Synthesis members: Mission Approach Goals

WG 8: Inter-agency/International collaboration – Draft Schedule Wed PM Thurs AM

Plan for Synthesis Group Members/assignments Approach Attendee survey?

Plenary Session Thursday 1300-1700 1250 Introductory remarks: Chair/Co-Chair 1300-1330 Synthesis group outbrief 1330 WG 1 outbrief 1345 WG 2 outbrief 1400 WG 3 outbrief 1445 WG 4 outbrief 1500 Q&A for WGs 1-4 1520 break 1530 WG 5 outbrief 1545 WG 6 outbrief 1600 WG 7 outbrief 1615 WG 8 outbrief 1630 Q&A for WGs 5-8 1650 Recognitions & Sponsor’s concluding remarks

Logistics/Admin Site POC: Richard H. Miller (richard.miller@ngc.com) Site layout:

Logistics/Admin – Room Assignments Tutorial/Opening & closing plenary: Freedom Auditorium (capacity?) MORS Office WG 1: WG 2: WG 3: WG 4: WG 5: WG 6: WG 7: WG 8: Synthesis:

Logistics/Admin Requirement: Catering for morning & afternoon breaks MORS POC: Colette to make arrangements (contract) directly Lunches Working groups will plan on 60 minute lunch breaks Workshop attendees lunch as individuals Pls provide some details on lunch options Mixer? MORS POC: Colette to make arrangements Is this part of the conference?

Logistics/Admin IT support? Pls provide details Hardware Log-in Ability to email classified presentations to site? Procedure for obtaining conference electronic files? Security issues Disposal of classified paper? Process to take classified notes? Processing of clearances Foreign Visitors US Visitors

Logistics/Admin Disclosure forms needed for all presentations Plenary Working groups WGs that are unclassified: NONE MORS Office will make copies of WG agendas and distribute to all attendees Working group chairs need to work with the MORS Office to ensure the people you want are invited Provide addresses so MORS office can send information or You may want to e-mail them and suggest that they go to the MORS website for an application (www.mors.org)

Disclosure Forms Received in the MORS Office As of: Name, presentation

Workshop Products An executive summary addressing the findings, conclusions, and recommendations Common issues of concern among participants Potential solutions in terms of tools, methods, and data Proposals for future collaboration on analysis and development of tools, methods, and data A PHALANX article A proceedings document containing the summaries of all sessions and copies of appropriate briefing slides and presentations (unclassified) Will need scripted out-brief from the Working Group Chairs about 30 days after workshop Coordination/writing session Friday 0800-1200 after the workshop for group leads

Attendance Status So, xx people have indicated they plan to attend Allies/Non-DoD United Kingdom # Canada # Australia # DHS # Total: ## By Work Group Program Staff # Synthesis 7 WG 1: 39 WG 2: 19 WG 3: 27 WG 4: 13 Plenary Only 2 Others 5 Grand Total 114 US OSD # JS # Army # Navy # USAF # COCOMs #

Logistics/Admin – VIP Attendees Name, Session attending VIP parking?

Site Issues – Hotels / Transportation MORS Hotel MORS Office has arranged for xx to be the workshop headquarters hotel Bus or shuttles?

Hot Actions WG action plans Synthesis group action plan Confirm panel participants for opening plenary Identify/invite keynote speaker Update TOR Develop PHALANX article How do we deal with issues not easily binned – lunchtime hot topics? Unclassified scenarios? Use of AB products across DoD? Hybrid warfare?