The Hungarian experience in implementing European Regulation about seasonal products 26 May 2014, Geneva Workshop: Treatment of seasonal products Borbála.

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The Hungarian experience in implementing European Regulation about seasonal products 26 May 2014, Geneva Workshop: Treatment of seasonal products Borbála Mináry National account Department Consumer prices Section

Definitions – Estimation of out-of-season prices Counter-seasonal estimation means the estimation of a price for a product- offer of a product that is out-of-season so that: in the first month of the out-of-season period, the estimated price is equal to a typical price observed in the previous in-season period, and, from the second month, the estimated price is equal to the estimated price for the preceding month, adjusted by the change in observed prices on average over all seasonal products that are in-season in the same subdivision of COICOP/HICP. All-seasonal estimation means the estimation of a price for a product-offer of a product that is out-of-season so that: in the first month of the out-of-season period, the estimated price is equal to a typical price observed in the previous in-season period, and, from the second month, the estimated price is equal to the estimated price for the preceding month, adjusted by the change in observed prices on average over all available products in the same subdivision of COICOP/HICP.

Definitions – Weights Strict annual weights index means a price index using weightings that do not differ between months within the same year at all levels of index calculation. Class-confined seasonal weights index means a price index using weightings that within the same year: do not differ between months for any COICOP/HICP subdivision taken as a whole, do not differ between months for products within any COICOP/HICP subdivision that does not contain any seasonal product, within the in-season period do not differ between months for products within any COICOP/HICP subdivision that contains seasonal products, except to the extent that it is necessary to allow for month-on-month changes in the composition of the basket.

Fruits Hungarian practise before 2011 Variable weights index means a price index using weightings that within the same year: do not differ between months for any COICOP/HICP subdivision taken as a whole, but inside the subdivision differ between months for any product which has seasonal pattern. Estimation of a price for a product that is out-of-season: from the first month, the estimated price is equal to the last observed or estimated price for the last month, adjusted by the change in observed prices on average over all available products in the same subdivision of COICOP/HICP.

Different methods Method A Variable weights, all seasonal estimation (the estimation differs between the first and the remaining months of the out-of-season period Method B Fixed weights, all seasonal estimation Method C Class-confined seasonal weights, all seasonal estimation CPI (Hungarian practise before 2011) Variable weights, seasonal estimation (same from the first month of the out-of-season period

Typical (normal) price – typical month(s) Fruits and vegetables – sales data only for domestic products from the agricultural statistics, markets Largest volume of sale Clothing – no information about monthly sale at all

The impact of the change

Possible way forward Annual update regarding to typical price and month(s) (it is affected significantly by the weather for example) Different seasonal pattern for domestic and imported products (more data collection – costly)