1 Inter-Agency "Data Day"18-19 May 2009 at WTO Geneva, 18 th May 2009 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Ralf Peters DITC UNCTAD, Geneva

2 Agriculture Trade Issues “Three Pillars” Domestic Support OTDS and AMS de minimis Blue box Green Box Market Access Bound tariffs Applied tariffs TRQ Preferences SeP, SP and SSM Export Subsidies Scheduled Export credits STEs Food aid Non-tariff measures such as TBT and SPS Production, employment and income Food security and rural livelihoods

3 Examples for important analytical questions (1) Using one or two data bases, no modelling What will be the changes in bound and, hence, applied tariffs resulting from new commitments from the Doha round? What are the changes in quotas? What will be the Product-Specific AMS Limits?

4 Examples for important analytical questions (2) Combining more data sets and modelling 1. What is the impact of trade policy changes on exports, imports and welfare? 2. Is domestic support trade distorting? 3. What is the impact of preference erosion on beneficiaries? 4. How do market access and market entry conditions differ? 5. How do changes in food prices affect rural poverty? 6. Is food security linked to self-sufficiency? 7. What is the impact of investments in agricultural production in developing countries?

5 Example 1: AMS product specific caps Two different provisions

6 Supporting Table DS:4 Current total AMS for product x: 1,049 Example 1: AMS product specific caps W ORLD T RADE O RGANIZATION G/AG/N/country/number 17 March.... (…) Committee on Agriculture Original: English NOTIFICATION

7 Example 2: Illustrative list of indicators for designation of SP 1Whether product is staple or part of the basic food basket 6% women producers 1% contribution to Caloric intake6% of production in disadvantaged regions 2Domestic production as % of domestic consumption 7% of value of production from the product 3Domestic consumption as % of total world exports 7% of agriculture income of households from the product 3% exported by the largest exporting country 8% of product processed 4% domestic production on small land holdings 8% of value addition to the product 4% of small land holdings producing the product 9% of customs tariff revenue 5% of population/labour force employed in the production 10% of food expenditure on the product 6% low income farmers10% of income spent on the product 6% of resource poor farmers11AMS or blue box subsidies and exported 6% of subsistence farmers12Productivity per worker of the product 6% vulnerable communities12Productivity per hectare of the product

8 Example 2: SP Indicators: Contribution to caloric intake FAO provides data on the caloric intake in kcal by product Data is available for 124 products at the level of the FAO classification Example: Apples, Maize, Potatoes, Wheat, Sugar cane There is no easy one-to-one match with the HS classification used in WTO: but a (complex) concordance table exists Calculate share of contribution to total caloric intake for each product If this share is higher than [10 %] the product contributes significantly to caloric intake AND is thus a candidate for SP

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10 Example 2: SP Indicators: Contribution to caloric intake Share of products that each contributes at least 10 per cent (5 per cent) to the total caloric intake; Based on products for which data are available; Data source: FAOstat

11 Example 3: Possible Change in World Prices from Doha Round Source: ATPSM simulation

12 Data for agricultural trade

13 Data Sources