Contribución UIB-DFS a HyMeX Eventos extremos en el ciclo hidrológico Mediterráneo: física y predecibilidad V. Homar R. Romero A. Amengual M. Vich L. Garcies.

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Presentation transcript:

Contribución UIB-DFS a HyMeX Eventos extremos en el ciclo hidrológico Mediterráneo: física y predecibilidad V. Homar R. Romero A. Amengual M. Vich L. Garcies M. Tous C. Ramis S. Alonso

HyMeX.es Líneas principales UIB WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods WG4: Intense sea-atmosphere interactions 1.to improve our understanding of the water cycle, with emphases on the predictability and evolution of intense events 2. to evaluate the societal and economical vulnerability to extreme events and the adaptation capacity Objetivos HyMeX

HyMeX.es WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.1a- Heavy precipitation systems climatology

HyMeX.es WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.1b- Factors leading to heavy precipitation systems Análisis numérico de factores (separación de factores): Contorno (orografia, superficie marina, tipo suelo) Procesos Físicos (evaporación, liberación calor latente, calor sensible) Estructuras dinámicas (vaguadas, centros ciclónicos, estructuras PV)

HyMeX.es 15 UTC 9 UTC Reference MM5 With nudging Radar reflectivities 5 WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.1b- Factors leading to heavy precipitation systems

HyMeX.es WRF : Front structure at 12 UTC Өe à 850 hPa Өe vertical section A-B A katafront 6 WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.1b- Factors leading to heavy precipitation systems

HyMeX.es WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues Generación de SPC (ensembles) Multifísica Perturbación CI basada en PV Perturbación CI basada en BredVectors Perturbación CI basada en Adjunto Mejora de CI a través de targeting a corto y medio plazo

HyMeX.es We easily compute probabilities of future outcomes: Time Initial fields Prediction 18 ºC (20%) 16 ºC (50%) 14 ºC (30%) Ensemble prediction systems WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

HyMeX.es New generation method for extreme events: “Targeted” bred vectors ln(ρ) = -1.3 ω 2 = 1.8 ln(ρ) = -3.5 ω 2 = 0.1 ln(ρ) = -1 ω 2 = 0.5 ln(ρ) = -.5 ω 2 = 1.5 ln(ρ) = 0 ω 2 = 5 WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

HyMeX.es WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

HyMeX.es WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

HyMeX.es THE SCENE THE CRIME THE SUSPECTSUS, THE RESEARCHERS WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

HyMeX.es Forecasting process WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

HyMeX.es ADJOINT ENSEMBLE-1 ENSEMBLE-2 HUMAN NON-SENS A cylindrical gaussian perturbation is applied at t-48h to the IC with an amplitude proportional to their zonal standard deviation and centered on the maximum of the mean sensitivity field. Geopotential height at 500hPa: Sensitivity locations: ADJOINT ENSEMBLE-1 ENSEMBLE-2 HUMAN NON-SENS Sensitivities of Mediterranean Intense Cyclones: Analysis and Verification WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

HyMeX.es Mean normalized RMSD of MSLP over the 25 verification cyclone cases: Sensitivities of Mediterranean Intense Cyclones: Analysis and Verification WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

HyMeX.es WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

HyMeX.es WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.2d-Modeling and predictability issues

HyMeX.es WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.2d-Modeling and predictability issues

HyMeX.es To improve our understanding from global climate model outputs to regional and local spatial scales: GCMs Dynamical downscaling RCMs -Regional scales: Dynamical downscaling. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) Statistical downscaling -Local scales: Statistical downscaling and model calibration from RCMs WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.3-Impact of climate change on heavy precipitation and flash-floods

HyMeX.es WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.3-Impact of climate change on heavy precipitation and flash-floods

HyMeX.es SPdP: change in annual intensity trends of extreme events ( / ) WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods Topic 3.3-Impact of climate change on heavy precipitation and flash-floods

HyMeX.es Líneas principales UIB WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods WG4: Intense sea-atmosphere interactions 1.to improve our understanding of the water cycle, with emphases on the predictability and evolution of intense events 2. to evaluate the societal and economical vulnerability to extreme events and the adaptation capacity Objetivos HyMeX

HyMeX.es WG4: Intense sea-atmosphere interactions Topic 4.1a-Local severe winds 10 Desembre Setembre Gener Octubre 1996

HyMeX.es WG4: Intense sea-atmosphere interactions Topic 4.1a-Local severe winds

HyMeX.es + B.C. + Hydrostatic Eq. ÊPV inversion (Hoskins et al., 1985) WG4: Intense sea-atmosphere interactions Topic 4.1b-Mediterranean cyclogenesis

HyMeX.es APÉNDICES

HyMeX.es

HyMeX.es

Acción complementaria Plan Nacional Red HyMeX.es Financiar: Viajes a Workshops, Reuniones HyMeX.es Portal comunicación online, Secretaría? Grupos Interesados?