Developing Understanding of Ecological Economic Systems Thomas Maxwell Robert Costanza University of Maryland Institute for Ecological Economics

Institute for Ecological Economics Motivation Unbridled expansion of human enterprise. Depletion of natural life support systems. Resource depletion -> global tensions. Interacting complex systems. Tremendous uncertainty. Potentially disastrous consequences. Institute for Ecological Economics

Integrated Problem Solving Vision State of the world. Possible future worlds (postitive & negative). What to tweak? Expected outcomes of policy adjustments. Methodology Hard problem science. Adaptive management. Institute for Ecological Economics

Science in Service of Society Comprehensive systems approach Conceptual pluralism Problem driver Multiscale Integrated modeling Links with policy Modeling as consensus building tool Communicating uncertainty Institute for Ecological Economics

Collaborative (Visible) Modeling Realistic models require multiple teams Modelers typically not computer scientists Stake holders must be included Communication to a wide audience Institute for Ecological Economics

Three Stage Modeling Process Scoping models Consensus building Research models Understanding dynamics Management models Exploring scenarios Institute for Ecological Economics

Modeling Collaboratory Constructivist learning. Paradigm expansion. (narrow,linear,static) -> (broad,nonlinear,dynamic) Conflict resolution. Consensus building. Collective decision making. Develop management scenarios. Institute for Ecological Economics

Supporting Collaborative Modeling Graphical modeling tools Modular model development Transparent high performance computing Integrated data access Integrated visualization Variety of formalisms and frames Institute for Ecological Economics

Institute for Ecological Economics Graphical Modeling Model viewed and manipulated graphically. Opens model development to non-programmers. Facilitates rapid development of models. Enforces modeling standards. Facilitates collaboration in model development. Graphical representation serves as a blackboard. Institute for Ecological Economics

Institute for Ecological Economics STELLA Model Institute for Ecological Economics

Spatial Modeling Framework Institute for Ecological Economics

Environmental Modeling Workbench Spatial Modeling Environment Inputs to multiple models Coupled Bio-Hydro Simulation Integrated wireless Sensor web CavernSoft Collaborative Environment Institute for Ecological Economics Environmental Hydrology Applications Team

Institute for Ecological Economics Two types of modules Ecological Modules No general theory. Primary focus on modeling. Examples: Macrophytes, Epiphytes, Consumers, Phytoplankton Modules developed in Stella/SME. Physical Modules Theory well known (e.g. Navier Stokes). Primary focus on computation. hydrodynamics, atmospheric dynamics. Modules developed externally and linked to SME. Institute for Ecological Economics

Spatial Modeling Environment Collaborative Spatial Modeling Workbench Includes integrated support for: Icon-based unit module development Module archiving and reuse Integration of multiple spatial representations Distributed computing Web-based modeling & simulation Configuration, control, and visualization of remote simulations. Data access and visualization Real-time links to other apps (e.g. Swarm). Institute for Ecological Economics

Spatial Modeling Environment Module Repository Module Builder Simulation Driver Unit model Graphical modeling Spatial model HPC STELLA Code Generator PowerSim Module Constructor SME Module Editor Java Portal SMML Module Library Institute for Ecological Economics

Institute for Ecological Economics Module Specification Language Declarative Modular Fully visible structure & dynamics Supports encapsulation and specialization Separate universal specs / site-specific configs Platform and operating system independent Facilitates extensive simulation services Institute for Ecological Economics

Institute for Ecological Economics Simulation Module Markup Language XML-Based Declarative Language Simulation Module Specification Major Classes: Module: Reusable component. Variable: Simulation atomic object. Action: Performs computation or data IO. Event: Orders the execution of Actions. Frame: Defines a spatial topology. Institute for Ecological Economics

Institute for Ecological Economics SMML Example <atom name="CONS_BIOM" id="CONS_BIOM" status="private" type="state" > <port type="input" name="CONS_INGEST" /> <port type="input" name="CONS_EGEST" /> <port type="input" name="CONS_MORT_BIOM" /> <port type="input" name="CONS_RESPIRATION" /> <dynamic event="integrate" type="code" > <code> ( ( ( CONS_INGEST-CONS_EGEST )-CONS_MORT_BIOM ) ) CONS_RESPIRATION ) </code> </dynamic> <port type="input" name="P1_CONS_IC" /> <port type="input" name="CELL_SIZE" /> <dynamic event="init" type="code" > <doc> CARBON BIOMASS OF AN AGGREGATED CONSUMER. (KGC). CONSUMERS EXCLUDE THE MICRO ORGANISMS WHICH ARE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE RESPIRATION FLUXES </doc> ( ( P1_CONS_IC*0.001 )*CELL_SIZE ) </atom> Institute for Ecological Economics

Institute for Ecological Economics SMML Example <?xml version="1.0"?> <!DOCTYPE compound SYSTEM "http://iee.umces.edu/SME/dtd/smml.dtd"> <compound id="PLMD_module" name="PLMD_module" > <compound id="CONSUMERS_module" name="CONSUMERS_module" location="CONSUMERS_module.xml" > <port type="output" name="CONS_EGEST" /> <port type="output" name="CONS_MORT_BIOM" /> <port type="output" name="CI_DETR" /> ... </compound> <link name="c__0" origin = "GLOBALS_module.CELL_SIZE" destination = "CONSUMERS_module.CELL_SIZE" /> <link name="c__1" origin = "DETRITUS_module.DET_AVAIL" destination = "CONSUMERS_module.DET_AVAIL" /> <link name="c__2" origin = "DOM_module.DOM_C_AVAIL" destination = "CONSUMERS_module.DOM_C_AVAIL" /> Institute for Ecological Economics

Typical State Variables Examples of some typical state variables: (Dissolved Inorganic) Nitrogen, Phosphorus Water (Saturated, Unsaturated, Surface, Snow) Detritus Macrophyte (Non)Photosynthetic Biomass Consumers Deposited Organic Matter Phytoplankton Epiphytes Institute for Ecological Economics

Agent Based Modeling in SME Swarm agents can populate SME landscapes. SME-Swarm integration: http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/swarmsme Swarm classes serve as wrappers for: SME model. SME grid layers. SME spatial variables. Two-way remote data transfer. Built on SNI simulation server architecture: http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/sni Institute for Ecological Economics

Institute for Ecological Economics Multi-Grid Library Integrates multiple spatial representations Implements space in SME Major Components include: Cell: Spatially referenced area (or volume) element. Grid: Distributed set of Cells + links. Frame: Hierarchy of distributed Grids. Link: Connection between Cells. Intra-Grid: spatial contiguity. Inter-grid: scaling relations or mappings. Activation Layer: Subset of Cells in a Frame. Coverage: Mapping:: Activation Layer -> floats. Institute for Ecological Economics

Distributed Processing Spatial grid partitioned over processors Highly parallel application Recursive N-section: excellent load balancing Fully transparent to user Institute for Ecological Economics

Model Calibration toolkit Built on MPE toolkit: http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/svp/ Calculate performance measure (MPE) Estimate of match between model & system. Weighted sum of tests (Bounds, Theil, Freq, etc). Search parameter space to maximize MPE. Evolutionary and gradient searches. Params, tests, & searches configured in SME. Institute for Ecological Economics

Institute for Ecological Economics SME Java Portal Desktop access to remote supercomputing resources Web-enabled ( using java servlets ) Grid enabled ( using globus gram utility ) Java applet <-> Java servlet <-> C++ apps Portal interfaces include: Workspace management Module development Model configuration Simulation initialization, control, & visualization Institute for Ecological Economics

Institute for Ecological Economics WorkSpace Manager Institute for Ecological Economics

Configuration Manager Documentation Panel Documentation of selected command Model Panel Hierarchical View of model objects Associated commands as boxes Command Panel Structure of selected command Property Panel Command Arguments Institute for Ecological Economics

Institute for Ecological Economics Parameter Editor Edit Simulation Parameters Spreadsheet format Institute for Ecological Economics

Institute for Ecological Economics Simulation Control Control Execution View Model Structure Trace Dependencies View Model Equations Configure Visualization Institute for Ecological Economics

Institute for Ecological Economics ViewServer Control Panel Associates DataSets with Viewers Creates Viewers Manages DataSets Institute for Ecological Economics

Institute for Ecological Economics 2D Animation Viewer 2D Animation Control Dynamic and manual rescaling ColorMap editor Data viewer (point/spreadsheet) Export as GIF or JPG Institute for Ecological Economics

3D Animation Viewer Dynamic Landscapes Variable1 -> Altitude Variable2 -> Color Mouse controlled navigation Institute for Ecological Economics

Image Spreadsheet Simultaneous display of variables at multiple timesteps Useful for time series comparisons Configure: start time, time step, magnification, scaling, etc. Institute for Ecological Economics

Numerical Spreadsheet View spatial data Attach to vis panels Follows animation Export to Stat packages. Institute for Ecological Economics

Institute for Ecological Economics Chesapeake Bay Model Links components: Circulation (OM3) Ecology (SME) Atmospheric coupling Institute for Ecological Economics Environmental Hydrology Applications Team

Collaborative Virtual Environment Chesapeake Bay data in CVE with Cave5D/Virtual Director Institute for Ecological Economics Environmental Hydrology Applications Team

Institute for Ecological Economics Example Applications Everglades Landscape Model http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/erd/esr/elm/intro/welcome.htm Patuxent Landscape Model http://iee.umces.edu/PLM Baltimore Ecosystem Study http://baltimore.umbc.edu/lter Illinois TES Models http://blizzard.gis.uiuc.edu/ Institute for Ecological Economics

Environmental Hydrology Institute for Ecological Economics Environmental Hydrology Applications Team

Institute for Ecological Economics SME Distribution The SME home page: http://iee.umces.edu/SME3 Includes: Overview. Technical documentation. Publications. Source code (C++ and java). Links Institute for Ecological Economics