MDSS Stakeholder Meeting - Aug MDSS Challenges, Research & Managing Expectations - Road Conditions - Prof. Leon Osborne Surface Transportation Weather Research Center University of North Dakota

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting - Aug Goal of MDSS... To achieve desired levels of accuracy of road condition predictions at all locations of interest to the winter maintenance community To convey the appropriate treatment recommendations to decision makers to permit a desired level of service

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting - Aug Factors Determining Road Conditions... ‘Weather’‘Weather’ –The most crucial factor forcing particular road conditions ‘Land-Use, Soils & Road Structure’‘Land-Use, Soils & Road Structure’ –Sets the background characteristics that influence how pavements respond to weather elements ‘Treatment Strategies’‘Treatment Strategies’ –Materials and timing of treatments alter the weather- influenced road conditions ‘Traffic’‘Traffic’ –Can (often) alters ice/snow/water distribution on pavement

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting - Aug Pavement LOSSESLOSSES WeatherWeather ChemicalChemical TrafficTraffic WeatherWeatherRunoffRunoff Sub-sfcSub-sfc Sub-sfcSub-sfc PlowingPlowing TrafficTraffic WeatherWeather ChemicalChemical TrafficTraffic Sub-sfcSub-sfc WeatherWeatherRunoffRunoff Sub-sfcSub-sfc PlowingPlowing Past Future TrafficTraffic GAINSGAINS Mass Energy contaminant layer

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting - Aug Road Condition Prediction Process Predictions are made by achieving a balance between mass and energy forcing on the pavement.Predictions are made by achieving a balance between mass and energy forcing on the pavement. Results in a forecast of:Results in a forecast of: –Pavement temperature –Mass (ice, snow, water) on the pavement Energy Mass Energy Before After

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting - Aug Achieving True Balance Is Difficult Results from a lack of complete description of all physical processesResults from a lack of complete description of all physical processes Gives errors in pavement temperaturesGives errors in pavement temperatures –Greater the imbalance, the larger the errors Energy Mass Energy Before After

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting - Aug SNTHERM_RT Simulation (Adam Mohr - UND) Weather Example: Cloud Cover Impacts Cloud Cover Cloud Cover Pavement Temperature Impact

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting - Aug Treatment Example: The ‘Ice Cream Freezer’ Effect

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting - Aug Balance... But At A Price!

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting - Aug Road / Roadway Characterization Crucial to the success of a road condition prediction model (Yet information is often difficult to obtain)Crucial to the success of a road condition prediction model (Yet information is often difficult to obtain) Vegetation (including sky view) snow cover terrain sub-grade pavement materials/layers

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting - Aug Issues / Limitations Requiring Further Research... Weather forecast qualityWeather forecast quality –Particularly precipitation and radiation (cloud cover) forecasts Quality of observations from ESS sitesQuality of observations from ESS sites Accurately quantifying roadway and bridge propertiesAccurately quantifying roadway and bridge properties Understanding / modeling the effect of trafficUnderstanding / modeling the effect of traffic Understanding /modeling of chemical diffusion and loss propertiesUnderstanding /modeling of chemical diffusion and loss properties

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting - Aug Issues / Limitations Requiring Further Research... (continued) Understanding the combined affects of multiple chemicalsUnderstanding the combined affects of multiple chemicals Quantifying what is an acceptable road conditionQuantifying what is an acceptable road condition Understanding / modeling the processes associated with falling / blowing snow relative to the road surfaceUnderstanding / modeling the processes associated with falling / blowing snow relative to the road surface Lack of accurate (real-time) information on maintenance actions performedLack of accurate (real-time) information on maintenance actions performed

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting - Aug Simulation of Mass Distribution Due to Traffic

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting - Aug Management of Treatment Action Data Recommendation Action

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting - Aug Summary Significant progress has been made in understanding the scope of the issues outstanding in road condition monitoring and predictionSignificant progress has been made in understanding the scope of the issues outstanding in road condition monitoring and prediction More research is needed to advance the methodologies and reduce the uncertainty of operational road condition predictions (although there will always be uncertainty)More research is needed to advance the methodologies and reduce the uncertainty of operational road condition predictions (although there will always be uncertainty) The advancements will depend upon cooperation between the maintenance and weather communitiesThe advancements will depend upon cooperation between the maintenance and weather communities Expectations need to be sized to the capabilitiesExpectations need to be sized to the capabilities