An Elite Club Ashley Ewing Brit Hafner Bart Hostetler Zach Huffman.

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Presentation transcript:

An Elite Club Ashley Ewing Brit Hafner Bart Hostetler Zach Huffman

The Triple Digit Club At the end of March 2000, 9% of stock funds around at the time (275 funds) posted gains of 100% or more in the previous 12 months. At the end of March 2000, 9% of stock funds around at the time (275 funds) posted gains of 100% or more in the previous 12 months. Of those, 24 funds returned more than 200% Of those, 24 funds returned more than 200% And one, PBHG, gained 533% And one, PBHG, gained 533%

Where are they now? 97 of the funds no longer exist as investors in 2000 knew them 97 of the funds no longer exist as investors in 2000 knew them 44 had their track records swept under the rug 44 had their track records swept under the rug 22 were liquidated 22 were liquidated Morningstar was unable to determine the fate of another 31; they had dropped out of its database. Morningstar was unable to determine the fate of another 31; they had dropped out of its database.

Im a survivor! Of 179 survivors tracked, only 37 topped the market's average return of 1.7% per year in the seven years since March 10, 2000 Of 179 survivors tracked, only 37 topped the market's average return of 1.7% per year in the seven years since March 10, 2000 Another half-dozen eked out slimmer positive results. Another half-dozen eked out slimmer positive results. For nearly 1/3 of these funds, an investor who bought on the day the Nasdaq Composite Index peaked would have averaged double- digit annual losses since. For nearly 1/3 of these funds, an investor who bought on the day the Nasdaq Composite Index peaked would have averaged double- digit annual losses since.

Losses Losses were so severe that 34 funds lost a lot more than their triple digit gains. Losses were so severe that 34 funds lost a lot more than their triple digit gains. For example, someone who purchased Van Wagoner Emerging Growth in March 1999 would be down 63% today. For example, someone who purchased Van Wagoner Emerging Growth in March 1999 would be down 63% today.

Not everyones a loser Turner Emerging Growth, which posted a 194.6% trailing 12-month return in March 2000, is up an average 9.6% a year over the past seven years. Turner Emerging Growth, which posted a 194.6% trailing 12-month return in March 2000, is up an average 9.6% a year over the past seven years.

PBHG - What went wrong? Fund managers paid little attention to risk control, but instead they threw money at stocks trading at incredible share-price-to-earnings multiples, and they concentrated bets in narrow parts of the market Fund managers paid little attention to risk control, but instead they threw money at stocks trading at incredible share-price-to-earnings multiples, and they concentrated bets in narrow parts of the market Analysts predicted stock prices to rise throughout the rest of the year; however they went down Analysts predicted stock prices to rise throughout the rest of the year; however they went down Lost 28% per year on average (market lost 11.8% per year) Lost 28% per year on average (market lost 11.8% per year)

PBHG – What went wrong? $459 million in assets in March 2000 dwindled to $28 million in March 2003 $459 million in assets in March 2000 dwindled to $28 million in March 2003 Invested 100% of assets in single sector Invested 100% of assets in single sector From a lack of diversification, PBHG was not able to react to market changes From a lack of diversification, PBHG was not able to react to market changes

Merger PBHG merged into Old Mutual Emerging Growth Fund, thus wiping out the history of PBHG PBHG merged into Old Mutual Emerging Growth Fund, thus wiping out the history of PBHG

The Departed 24 funds shut down and the money was returned to investors 24 funds shut down and the money was returned to investors The mutual funds that loaded up on Tech- Stocks left little margin for error The mutual funds that loaded up on Tech- Stocks left little margin for error When the market collapsed, these funds were hit the hardest When the market collapsed, these funds were hit the hardest

Success Stories Al Frank Fund has the best annualized results for a US stock fund, up an average of 11.4% a year Al Frank Fund has the best annualized results for a US stock fund, up an average of 11.4% a year The fund had $20 million under management in 2000 is now worth $270 million today The fund had $20 million under management in 2000 is now worth $270 million today Since 1999, the fund is up 345% Since 1999, the fund is up 345%