CHEMICAL CLIMATOLOGY STUDIES: CO 2, CH 4, SO 2, PM2.5, SO 4, … Observed Changes in Greenhouse Gases Maryland Healthy Air Act and Observed Changes in Air Quality Konstantin K. Vinnikov & Russell R. Dickerson (AOSC/UMD), Nickolay A. Krotkov (GSFC/NASA),... MDE/UMD Quarterly Meeting, November 12, 2013

TREND ppm/10yr ppm/10yr ppm/10yr ppm/10yr ppm/10yr ppm/10yr ppm/10yr 2

SOUTH POLE, ANTARCTICA o S, o W, 2810m Data are considered “BACKGROUND”. Data provided by: Kirk Thoning, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA TREND=18.78 ppm/10yr 3

THESE USA CO 2 HOURLY RECORDS ARE OBTAINED FROM EPA AQS DATA ARCHIVE 4

MEAN TREND ppm/10yr 5

GLOBAL MONITORING OF CH 4 BY NOAA: HOURLY RECORDS 6

THESE ARE FIVE THE LONGEST HOURLY METHANE RECORDS IN EPA DATA ARCHIVE. ONLY THREE OF THEM ARE VALID. ALL OTHER RECORDS ARE VERY SHORT. 7

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Conclusion: NOAA monitors global changes of main greenhouse gases. Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide and Methane near land surface display strong diurnal and seasonal cycles. Monitoring of these gases organized by NOAA is not sufficient to control regional sources and sinks of these gases. 9

MARYLAND, HOURLY TIME SERIES OF SO 2 EMISSION 10

TREND COMPONENTS OF ENERGY GENERATED AND SO 2 EMITTED 11

CHANGE OF SURFACE SO 2 IN RESPONSE TO HEALTHY AIR ACT. TIME SERIES OF HOURLY SO 2 CONCENTRATION OBSERVED AT MD/DC AQS Observed AQS data display noticeable decrease of SO 2 concentrations after Let us compare seasonal/ diurnal patterns of SO 2 for two periods and , before and after Healthy Air Act X-time. 12

SEASONAL/DIURNAL VARIATIONS SO 2 OBSERVED AT THREE MD AQS BEFORE ( ) AND AFTER ( ) MARYLAND HEALTHY AIR ACT X-TIME Are these changes really caused by the Healthy Air Act? Are they caused by change power plants SO 2 emissions in MD? 13

SATELLITE (OMI) OBSERVED DECREASE OF COLUMN MEAN SO 2 CONTENT AT MARYLAND BEFORE AND AFTER

LAG-CORRELATION FUNCTIONS OF RANDOM COMPONENT IN TEMPORAL VARIATIONS SO 2 CONCENTRATIONS AND DECAY TIMES OF SO 2 ANOMALIES R(τ) - is empirical estimate of Lag-correlation function for different Lags, τ. R(τ) ≈ exp(-|τ|/T o ) - is approximation of Lag-correlation function. T o – Decay Time - is estimated from least square condition: Σ(ln(R(τ))-|τ|/T o ) 2 =min. T o – Estimated Decay Time (or - Life Time of temporal perturbations, or – Scale of temporal variability) for our variables is equal to about few hours. 15

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Seasonal-Diurnal Cycles of PM2.5 Particles (μg/m 3 ) during Estimates of R(τ) - Lag-Correlation Functions of PM2.5 η – fraction of white noise Τ - Lag T - Decay time, or Scale MEAN, μg/m 3 STD, μg/m 3 White Noise, % QNTL(95%) μg/m 3 QNTL(99%) μg/m 3 QNTL(99.9%) μg/m 3 SCALE T, hour Rockville Beltsville * * Oldtown Fairhill Hagerstown * means pure approximation 17

1.Diurnal Cycle in PM2.5 is weak and can be neglected. 2.Decay Time of PM2.5 anomalies is hr which is ~4 times larger compared to SO 2. This means that changes in PM2.5 can be partly imported to MD from neighboring States. 3.Five MD and one DC stations display significant systematic decrease observed PM2.5 concentration in compared to This decrease is the largest during the warm months of a year. 18

Decrease of SULFATE (SO 4 ) in atmospheric aerosol PM2.5 observed in MD Frostburg, MD and Washington, DC stations monitor content of Sulfate in aerosol particles smaller than 2.5 μm. Beltsville, MD and Blackwater NWR, MD observed total amount of Sulfate in atmospheric aerosol particles using Teflon and Nylon filters. We see analogous decrease of Sulfate concentration from to in data of both pairs of these stations. 19

TEMPORAL VARIATION OF MD SURFACE OBSERVED OPTICAL DEPTH tau500 AERONET Project Observed decrease of Atmospheric Optical Depth tau500 in Maryland from to is consistent with observed decrease of surface concentration of PM2.5 particles. 20

ttt CONCLUSIONS: By comparing mean values of variables for (before MD HAA) and for (three year after MD HAA) we found the following: 1.Significant decrease of MD Power Plants SO 2 Emission agreement w CEMs. 2.Tremendous decrease of SO 2 concentration observed at MD AQS stations. 3.Small decrease in surface concentration of PM2.5 particles in MD. 4.Consistent Decrease of Optical Depth of Atmospheric Air tau500. We estimated Decay Time of anomalies of observed variables and found: 1. Decay Time of fluctuations of Electric Energy Generated and SO 2 emitted by all Power Plants of MD together is in range 2-3 days. 2.Decay Time of SO 2 anomalies at surface stations is much smaller and is in range 2-8 hours depending on season and daytime. 3.Decay Time of anomalies of PM2.5 aerosol particles is hours. Very short Life Time of SO 2 in atmosphere permit us to attribute the most of the “tremendous decrease of SO 2 concentration observed in MD” after 2010 to the Healthy Air Act. Longer Life Time of atmospheric aerosols means that the observed decrease in PM2.5, Sulfate, and Atmospheric Optical Depth in MD can be PARTLY imported from the neighboring States. Available but limited Medical Statistical reports show simultaneous decrease of Asthma Hospitalization and Cardiovascular mortality in MD and neighboring States. Health effects of MD Healthy Air Act still should be assessed. 21