Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta Dr. Armi Susandi, MT. Bandung Institute of Technology National Council on Climate Change Republic of Indonesia

OUTLINE Background Objective Basic Concept Data and Methodology Result Analysis Conclusions

Background Global climate change causes many areas in Indonesia to be vulnerable on its impacts. Jakarta is projected to be a vulnerable region with high magnitude as compared with the other Indonesia regions. Up to recent, disaster frequently occurred in Jakarta as impact of pattern change in rainfall.

Objective Building model to make map of vulnerable index to climate change impacts in Jakarta. Performing analysis regarding to Jakarta vulnerable index to find the solution as adaptation planning to climate change.

Basic Concept (IPCC, 2001) CLIMATE CHANGE Including Variability Human Interference MITIGATION Of Climate Change via GHG Sources and Sinks Exposure Initial Impacts Of Effects Autonomous Adaptations Residual or Net Impacts Planned ADAPTATION To the Impacts and Vulnerability Policy Responses IMPACTS VULNERABILITIES

Vulnerability ‘The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effect of climate change, including climate variability and extremes’ Adaptive Capacity AC ‘The ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences’ Potential Impacts PI ‘All impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without considering adaptation’ Exposure E ‘The nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations’ Sensitivity S ‘The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate- related stimuli Components of Vulnerability

Data and Methodology Data required: 1. Projection of rainfall, land use change, sea level rise, subsidence, and distribution of population. 2. Map of rivers, prosperity Methodology: 1. Projection using Fast Fourier Transform and Least Square Non-Linear on variable parameters. 2. Overlay and analysis using GIS software (Geographical Information System)

Flow of the Work Variable Parameters -1Prediction Model Model Output Building Spatial Map Overlay Variable Parameters -2 Variable Parameters -3 Variable Parameters -4 Variable Parameters -5 Vulnerability Index Building map of climate change vulnerability Constant Parameters - 1 Constant Parameters - 2

RainfallVariable SubsidenceVariable Land-use Change VariableRiversConstant Population Distribution Variable Sea Level Rise Variable ProsperityConstant

Projection of Mean Rainfall in Wet Months over Jakarta

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2010) 600 mm (Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2015) 600 mm (Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2020) 600 mm (Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2025) 600 mm (Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2030) 600 mm (Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2035) 600 mm (Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Sea Level Rise at North of Jakarta

2010 Tanjung Priok Cilincing North Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

2015 Pademangan Tanjung Priok Koja Cilincing North Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

2020 Pademangan Tanjung Priok Koja Cilincing North Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

2025 Penjaringan Pademangan Tanjung Priok Koja Cilincing North Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

2030 Penjaringan Pademangan Tanjung Priok Koja Cilincing Soekarno-Hatta Airport North Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

2035 Penjaringan Pademangan Tanjung Priok Koja Cilincing Soekarno-Hatta Airport North Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

Subsidence in (Hasanuddin, 2008)

Subsidence in (Hasanuddin, 2008)

Population in Jakarta (1972) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

Population in Jakarta (1983) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

Population in Jakarta (1993) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

Population in Jakarta (1998) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

Population in Jakarta (2002) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

Projection of Population in Jakarta (2010) Sum up of population: 8,981,200 people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005 AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

Sum up of population: 9,168,500 people Projection of Population in Jakarta (2015) Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005 AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

Sum up of population: 9,262,600 people Projection of Population in Jakarta (2020) Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005 AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

Sum up of population: 9,259,900 people Projection of Population in Jakarta (2025) Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005 AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

Sum up of population: 9,533,550 people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005 Projection of Population in Jakarta (2030) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

Projection of Population in Jakarta (2035) Sum up of population: 9,715,575 people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005 AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

Map of Rivers in Jakarta (Hasanuddin, 2008)

Map of Prosperity in Jakarta 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Index of Prosperity (Susandi et. al, 2009)

Result: “Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta” 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035

Climate Change Vulnerability in Southeast Asia Flood Drought

Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 Percentage of Index Range: 0.0 – 0.2 = 50 % 0.2 – 0.4 = 20 % 0.4 – 0.6 = 30 % 0.6 – 0.8 = 0 % 0.8 – 1.0 = 0 % (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2010

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta 2015 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 1 Percentage of Index Range: 0.0 – 0.2 = 30 % 0.2 – 0.4 = 20 % 0.4 – 0.6 = 50 % 0.6 – 0.8 = 0 % 0.8 – 1.0 = 0 %

Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 Percentage of Index Range: 0.0 – 0.2 = 0 % 0.2 – 0.4 = 20 % 0.4 – 0.6 = 40 % 0.6 – 0.8 = 40 % 0.8 – 1.0 = 0 % (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2020

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta 1 Percentage of Index Range: 0.0 – 0.2 = 0 % 0.2 – 0.4 = 5 % 0.4 – 0.6 = 30 % 0.6 – 0.8 = 65 % 0.8 – 1.0 = 0 % (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2025

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta 1 Percentage of Index Range: 0.0 – 0.2 = 0 % 0.2 – 0.4 = 0 % 0.4 – 0.6 = 10 % 0.6 – 0.8 = 70 % 0.8 – 1.0 = 20 % (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2030

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta 1 Percentage of Index Range: 0.0 – 0.2 = 0 % 0.2 – 0.4 = 0 % 0.4 – 0.6 = 5 % 0.6 – 0.8 = 20 % 0.8 – 1.0 = 75 % (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2035

Adaptation to Climate Change

From North Area Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2010 Mangrove 30 % of the distance

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 2015 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 1 From North Area Mangrove 60 % of the distance

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2020 From North Area Mangrove 100 % of the distance

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2025 From North Area Sea Wall 30 % of the distance

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2030 From North Area Sea Wall 60 % of the distance

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2035 From North Area Sea Wall 100 % of the distance

From South Area Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2010 Development: 1. Water Resource

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 2015 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 1 From South Area Development: 1.Water Resource 2.Water Collector

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2020 From South Area Development: 1.Water Resource 2.Water Collector 3.Polder

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2025 From South Area Development: 1.Water Resource 2.Water Collector 3.Polder 4.Networking Pipes

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2030 From South Area Development: 1.Water Resource 2.Water Collector 3.Polder 4.Networking Pipes 5.More Pipes & Polder

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2035 From South Area Development: 1.Water Resource 2.Water Collector 3.Polder 4.Networking Pipes 5.More Pipes & Polder

Combination From North and South Area Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2010 Mangrove 30 % of the distance Development: 1. Water Resource

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 2015 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 1 Mangrove 60 % of the distance Combination From North and South Area Development: 1.Water Resource 2.Water Collector

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2020 Mangrove 100 % of the distance Combination From North and South Area Development: 1.Water Resource 2.Water Collector 3.Polder

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2025 Sea Wall 30 % of the distance Combination From North and South Area Development: 1.Water Resource 2.Water Collector 3.Polder 4.Networking Pipes

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2030 Sea Wall 60 % of the distance Combination From North and South Area Development: 1.Water Resource 2.Water Collector 3.Polder 4.Networking Pipes 5.More Pipes & Polder

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability 1 (Susandi et. al, 2009) 2035 Sea Wall 100 % of the distance Combination From North and South Area Development: 1.Water Resource 2.Water Collector 3.Polder 4.Networking Pipes 5.More Pipes & Polder

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