SPRING 2014 EESC G9910 Atmospheric Science Seminar Fri 9:15-10:45 Comer 1 st Floor Seminar Room Jan 24, 2014: Organizational Meeting and Overview (IPCC process; report highlights)

IPCC AR5 WG1 Report: Course Information Motivating questions: What are the key findings? On what evidence are they based? Where are there critical knowledge gaps? FULL FINAL REPORT WILL POST JAN 30. Final SPM is posted: Sign up on list (circulating) receive course s Access to galley proof version of chapter for next week cannot be publicly distributed: Supplemental readings at course website:

Course participation a)Sign up for presentation – think about it so we can start assigning by end of class a)All are welcome to present, students are given first priority in choosing chapters. Schedule with names will be on course website b) credit options: 1 point (discussion only) 2 points (discussion + presentation) 3 points (discussion + presentation + paper) We welcome involvement from the full LDEO community. Feel free to join us whenever possible.

Class Schedule: 14 chapters in 13 weeks 1/31/14 2/7/14 2/14/14 2/21/14 3/7/14 3/28/14 2/28/14 3/14/14 4/4/14 4/11/14 4/18/14 4/25/14 5/2/14

Guidance on presentations and final paper (additional details posted on course website) Presentations: focus on the figures and the stories they tell. Plan on presenting ~15-20 figures per class 2 options for final Papers (8 page max): Option #1: Choose a “hot” research area topic and critically assess the new findings since the IPCC AR5 WG1 publication freeze date (March 15, 2013). How should the 2013 report be updated in light of these new findings? Option #2: Identify a critical knowledge gap, either explicitly discussed in the report or one that you feel should have been. Write a paper or a research proposal describing the work needed to fill this gap.

The rest of today 1. A little background on the IPCC process, from AR4  AR5 -- slides c/o Thomas Stocker University of Bern, Switzerland, IPCC WG1 co-chair – with Qin Dahe 2. Major highlights from the report -- slides c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, Science Director, WG1 TSU -- available at:

Climat Change Science 2013: Haiku

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule Warming in the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations.... Most of the observed increase in global averaged temperature... is very likely due to... increase in GHG concentrations. Continued GHG emissions... would induce many changes... that would very likely be larger than those observed... IPCC (2007): c/o Thomas Stocker, presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule c/o Thomas Stocker, presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule Principles Governing IPCC Work (1998, 2003, 2006) [...] c/o Thomas Stocker, presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule Overview of topical groups of chapters in WGI of AR5:  Introduction Chapter 1  Observations and Paleoclimate Information Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5  Process Understanding Chapters 6, 7  From Forcing to Attribution of Climate Change Chapters 8, 9, 10  Future Climate Change and Predictability Chapters 11, 12  Integration Chapters 13, 14 The full Outline of WGI is available on c/o Thomas Stocker, presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule FAR Chapters SAR Chapters TAR Chapters AR Chapters AR Chapters sea level clouds carbon cycle Climate Change 2013 observations regional change paleoclimate Structure of AR5 in perspective c/o Thomas Stocker, presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner,

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule May 2010Bureau selection of Lead Authors Nov 2010First LA meeting, Kunming, China Mar 2011Completion of 0-order draft Jul2011Second LA meeting Nov2011Completion 1 st -order draft Apr2012Third LA meeting Aug2012Completion of 2 nd -order draft Jan2013Fourth LA meeting May 2013Completion of Final Draft Sep2013Final Approval Plenary WGI Mar2014Final Approval Plenary WGII Apr2014Final Approval Plenary WGIII Sep2014Final Approval Plenary Synthesis Report Sep2008Election Co-Chairs & WG Bureaus July 2009Scoping Meeting submitted 31. July 2012 in press, published 15. March 2013 Schedule c/o Thomas Stocker, presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner,

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner,

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner,

HIGHLIGHTS: Observations c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner,

HIGHLIGHTS: Observations c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner,

HIGHLIGHTS: Observations c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner,

HIGHLIGHTS: Observations c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner,

HIGHLIGHTS: Causes (attribution) c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner,

HIGHLIGHTS: Causes (attribution) c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner,

HIGHLIGHTS: Projected 21 st C temperature changes c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner,

HIGHLIGHTS: Projected global mean sea level rise c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, range: RCP8.5: m RCP2.6: m

HIGHLIGHTS: Future options c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner,

Course Goals  Learn the scientific evidence behind headline -and other- statements in AR5. What are the key findings? On what evidence are they based? -- models, observations, theory -- strength of evidence Where are there critical knowledge gaps?

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner,

Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables AII.1: Historical Climate System Data AII.2: Anthropogenic Emissions AII.3: Natural Emissions AII.4: Abundances of the Well Mixed Greenhouse Gases AII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and Lifetimes AII.6: Effective Radiative Forcing AII.7: Environmental Data As in the TAR, to document the numbers behind the figures, generally decadal values Annex III: Glossary

c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner,

Class Schedule: 14 chapters in 13 weeks 1/31/14 2/7/14 2/14/14 2/21/14 3/7/14 3/28/14 2/28/14 3/14/14 4/4/14 4/11/14 4/18/14 4/25/14 5/2/14 Keren Ken Nora Olivia Cari Ethan Chloe