DOE Climate modeling strategy G. L. Geernaert DOE/SC Why climate modeling Who does what across the federal government Climate modeling capabilities in DOE What the data show Who does what across the federal government Roadmap for DOE supported climate modeling research

Atmospheric CO 2 at Mauna Loa Observatory Modern CO 2 concentrations are increasing The current concentration is the highest in 800,000 years, as determined by ice Parts per million (ppm) Concentration now ~400 ppm Antarctic ice core data show that concentration did not exceed 280 ppm for about the last 800,000 years Concentration prior to 1800 was 280 ppm Under a “business-as- usual” scenario, concentrations could rise to 1,000 ppm

Carbon emissions by energy sector Coal-fired power plants emit more CO 2 (~ 33% of the U.S. total) than any other source, including surface transportation. Sources: Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2008, Annual Energy Outlook 2008; EIA, 2007, Emission of Greanhouse Gases in the United States 2006

Global temperature anomalies from the 1890–1919 average

5 Climate processes and components

ENSO and climate

USG climate modeling platforms for research PlatformAgency*MissionAssets and strengthsLeveraging GFDLNOAAPublic safety, fisheries, forecasting in-house, co-located; seasonal to centennial DOE HPC; Community GISSNASASatellite sensor design/deploy In-house, co-located; data assimilation Community NSFBasic science, workforce development NCARDOE labs CommunityDOEEnergy sector vulnerability, resilience, security National Labs, NCAR, LCF / ASCR; UQ PCMDI, ESGF/other, dedicated field research NSF, GFDL, GISS *each agency also has a science mission.

Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research 10 BER Climate – OMB 2015 Evolution of Earth System Research Modeling at DOE Atmosphere/ Land Ocean Sulfate aerosols Carbon cycle Dynamic Ice sheet-ocean, SLR Atmosphere/ Land Atmosphere/ Land Atmosphere/ Land Atmosphere/ Land Ocean Sea-ice Ocean Sea-ice Ocean, Sea-ice Ocean Sea-ice Sulfate, dust, sea- salt, carbon aerosols Aerosol size, mixtures, cloud effects, chemistry Carbon cycle Interactive vegetation Biogeochemical cycles Dynamic vegetation Biogeochemical cycles Carbon-water coupling Human- water/energy/ atmosphere/land Variable mesh Atmosphere/ice- sheets/ocean Mature development Active development Challenge: UQ distribution within and among climate components Integrated Earth System Prediction (w/IA, IAV)

Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research 11 BER Climate – OMB 2015 Metrics and questions drive validation exercises Standard measures: temperature, precipitation, cloudiness.. Scale: global, regional, surface, troposphere, stratosphere., … Questions: El Nino; Monsoonal; Sea ice; Sea level rise, (climate sensitivity)...

Spatial resolution of climate models is increasing 25 km 150 km 75 km 300 km

Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research 13 BER Climate – OMB 2015 Metrics – what’s missing from last slide? EXTREMES Ice storms Snow storms Hurricanes Severe drought Heat waves Cold waves Flood Tornadoes Storm surge

Energy and climate change Energy issues Grid reliability Energy supply Energy extraction Pipelines Infrastructure design Technology design Security vulnerability Climate signatures of changing… Extreme temperature Drought extent and duration Sea level rise Severe precipitation Changing precipitation patterns Jet stream dynamics Sea ice coverage Permafrost thaw rates Surface hydrology Subsurface hydrology

USGCRP strategic plan (released in 2012) –Goal 1: Advance Science Extremes, thresholds, tipping points –Goal 2: Inform Decisions –Goal 3: Conduct Sustained Assessments –Goal 4: Communicate and Educate –Crosscut: Provide knowledge on scales appropriate for decision making –Cross-cut: Incorporate social and biological sciences –Cross-cut: enable response to global change via iterative risk management –Under discussion: Risk Modeling Framework

CESD Goals P rocess knowledge and innovative computational methods advancing next-generation, integrated models of the human- Earth system. Process-level understanding of atmospheric systems and terrestrial ecosystems, extending from bedrock to the top of the vegetative canopy. Coupled biogeochemical processes in complex subsurface environments to enable systems-level environmental prediction and decision support. Enhance the unique capabilities and impacts of the ARM and EMSL scientific user facilities and other BER community resources to advance the frontiers of climate and environmental science. Address science gaps that lead to solutions for DOE’s most pressing energy and environmental challenges. Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research 16US European Workshop

Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research 17 BER Climate – OMB 2015 DOE roadmap to advance predictability Observational Infrastructure Community Modeling Community Data Infrastructure Uncertainty characterization Computing Numerics Resolution Extremes Thresholds Tipping points ARM IFRC EMSL ESGF Ameriflux CESM and components System integration PCMDI CDIAC RASM IAM

Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research 18 OMB briefing Sept 2012 Predictability Research Roadmap UQ Spatial resolution (km) AR AR AR AR6? 2023 TODAY

General circulation models Earth system models Regional climate models Integrated assessment models GCMs are becoming more highly coupled like ESMs GCMs are being dynamically downsized to regional scales Regional Models and IAMs share a regional focus IAMs will ultimately be included in ESMs to form Integrated ESMs Relationships among model types ESMs can be dynamically downsized to regional scales

What are the major knowledge gaps in climate models?

ARM Research Sites – FY14 vs FY13 Testbeds for high resolution models Southern Great Plains (1993) North Slope of Alaska: Barrow (1998) and Atqasuk (1999) Tropical Western Pacific: Manus (1996), Nauru (1998), and Darwin (2002) First ARM Mobile Facility (2005); Second ARM Mobile Facility (2010) ARM Aerial Facility (2007) Eastern North Atlantic and Third ARM Mobile Facility (2013) ° °

Future: three major challenges for DOE Major upgrade in climate model platform capabilities Big data analytics – interoperability, diagnostics, modularity Shift to a new class of science problems

Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research 23 BER Climate – OMB 2015 Modeling towards high resolution, reduced uncertainty

Sources of uncertainty in climate modeling Computational system errors and limitations Limits to theory and understanding Limits to the ability to mathematically describe the earth system

Software ready for Exascale Computing Upgrade CESM codes, interoperable and modular components at petascale Exascale computing (10 18 flops) will increase the speed of computation by three orders of magnitude over today’s state-of-the-art petascale computers Exascale computing will enable: –Simulation of clouds over their natural range of scales for global climate –Modeling fully turbulent exchange of heat and gases between the atmosphere and ocean –Robust climate models for early warning, adaptation, and mitigation –Higher resolution “Challenges in Climate Change Science and the Role of Computing at the Extreme Scale.” DOE BER and ASCR, 2009.

The Future: Big Data for climate/earth sciences Science tools, testbeds, ease of access for community Unification of metadata involving –ESGF, CDIAC (Ameriflux), NGEE, ARM –Kbase Common formats with other agencies

Big Science Questions Extreme phenomena –Storms: ice, snow, hurricanes, etc. –Storm surge –Hydrology Abrupt Climate Change –Large-scale climate shifts that occur quickly, persists for decades to millennia, and can cause substantial disruptions in human and natural systems –4 types of ACC would pose a major challenge to society: Rapid change in glaciers, ice sheets, permafrost, and sea level Widespread changes to the hydrologic cycle, including droughts Abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Rapid release of methane to the atmosphere