1CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Office of Biological and Environmental Research Renu Joseph January 9, 2012 CLIVAR SSC Meeting DOE’s Climate Modeling Efforts PMs: Dorothy Koch, Renu Joseph, Bob Vallario Climate Modeling Programs Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Biological and Environmental Sciences

2CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Department of Energy Office of Science William Brinkman Director Patricia Dehmer Deputy Director High Energy Physics Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Sharlene Weatherwax, Associate Director Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Sharlene Weatherwax, Associate Director Basic Energy Sciences Fusion Energy Sciences Advanced Scientific Computing Research Nuclear Physics Biological Systems Science Sharlene Weatherwax, Director Biological Systems Science Sharlene Weatherwax, Director Climate and Environmental Sciences Gary Geernaert, Director Climate and Environmental Sciences Gary Geernaert, Director

3CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Climate and Environmental Sciences Atmospheric Science Atmospheric System Research (Ashley Williamson) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (Wanda Ferrell) Climate and Earth System Modeling Regional & Global Climate Modeling (Renu Joseph) Earth System Modeling (Dorothy Koch) Integrated Assessment (Bob Vallario) Environmental System Science Terrestrial Ecosystem Science (Mike Kuperberg, Dan Stover) Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration Research Subsurface Biogeochemical Research Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory

4CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Why DOE? The Energy-Climate Nexus DOE seeks to: Understand the effects of GHG emissions on Earth’s climate and the biosphere Provide world-leading capabilities in climate modeling and process research on clouds and aerosols, and the carbon cycle Provide unique, world-leading capabilities in cloud and aerosol observations and large scale ecological experiments Build foundational science to support effective energy and environmental decision making Greenhouse gases are emitted during energy production… and climate change will impact energy production

5CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Key Points to keep in mind! The Integrated approach to answer key science questions: –Two examples (NGEE, GOAMAZON) Most DOE climate modeling research is around the development and analysis of the CESM The Lab-University funding distribution is All our funding is peer reviewed –Through solicitations –Science Focus Areas

6CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Climate Modeling as CESD integrator Develop Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) clouds, aerosols and dynamics Apply ARM and other cloud/atmosphere/aerosol datasets to improve and test model Use model to discern most sensitive and uncertain elements of CAM to inform ASR research and ARM deployments Links between Atmospheric Sciences Research/Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ASR/ARM) and Climate Modeling

7CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Climate Modeling as CESD integrator Develop Carbon cycle in Community Land Model (CLM) Apply Ameriflux and other TES datasets to improve and test CLM Use model to discern most sensitive or uncertain elements of CLM to inform TES research Links between Terrestrial Ecosystem Sciences (TES) and Climate Modeling

8CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment Goal –Develop Earth System Model simulation of Arctic Ecosystem evolution under climate change by developing a process-rich ecosystem model, from bedrock to the top of the vegetative canopy, at the scale of an Earth System Model (ESM) grid cell (e.g. 30x30 km grid size) Approach –Collaborative effort among DOE National Laboratories and universities, with opportunity for leveraging through external collaboration with other agencies –Interdisciplinary, multi-scale approach to advance predictive understanding through coupled modeling and process research

9CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) 2014 Study interactions of the tropical rain forest and cloud systems: role of biogenic aerosols, surface fluxes as well as impact of pollution on cloud system developments Deployment of the ARM Mobile Facility and G1 aircraft to Manaus, Brazil in 2014 All CESD programs are collaborating to leverage this investment and improve the representation of these processes in Earth system models International coordination (e.g., Brazilian scientists and research institutions). Opportunities for U.S. scientists and other Federal agencies to collaborate.

10CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Overarching Goal for Climate Modeling To advance fundamental understanding of climate variability and climate change by developing and analyzing Climate and Earth System Models at temporal scales ranging from decades to centuries and spatial scales ranging from global to regional to understand climate and energy impacts Regional Global Multiscale Development Analysis Earth System Modeling Regional and Global Climate Modeling Integrated Assessment Research Program

11CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Regional and Global Climate Modeling Regional High Resolution Modeling to obtain reliable climate predictions/projections to enable us to understand climate and energy impacts and interactions at regional scales Focus on regions vital for assessing future climate –(e.g., Arctic, Tropics) Regional and Global Model Analyses to improve our understanding of the climate system including –Distinction between natural variability and anthropogenic climate change –Extreme event representation and attribution –Understanding the feedbacks and interactions between processes within the climate system Quantification of the uncertainties and feedbacks in the climate system to understand how reliable the projections/predictions are

12CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison: PCMDI PCMDI Scientific leadership of “community modeling” activities (e.g., AMIP, CMIP) Development and application of “broad brush” climate model performance metrics Climate change detection and attribution research Diagnosis of global climate models (variability, hydrological cycle, land surface processes, ocean heat content and circulation) CAPT project (Cloud Associated Project Testbed) Studies of aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and radiation processes Leadership of software development and infrastructure support for “community modeling” activities

13CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science UCAR-DOE Cooperative Agreement Research Areas 1.Modeling Future Climate Change with Various Climate Forcings 2.Evaluation of and Improvements to Components of Climate System Models 3.Physical Parameterization Development and Process Studies Using a Hierarchy of Modeling Frameworks 4.Climate Dynamics Applied to Climate Change Impact This provided the largest set of simulations to the CMIP3 multi-model dataset that was assessed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). They are currently participating in a set of coordinated experiments to address short term decadal climate change and new long term mitigation/adaptation scenarios for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

14CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Earth System Modeling Develop model physics of system components (CESM) Couple individual components Test and improve components using observations (“Test-bed”) SciDAC partnership with Advanced Scientific Computing (ASCR) Optimize computationally intensive processes and codes Evaluate process feedbacks and potential for abrupt climate change

15CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Earth System Modeling Projects FAST physics cloud model testbed: test and develop cloud parameterizations using ARM measurements Abrupt climate change: 1. Stability of WAIS (sheet-ocean interface), 2. Drought potential over US (Land hydrology, dust), 3. Arctic methane clathrate and permafrost release (land, ocean, atmosphere biogeochemistry) Arctic polar: pollution transport to Arctic, Arctic cloud, cryosphere development and coupling High Resolution: Challenges and benefits of running model at very high resolution (0.25x0.1 atmospherexocean), hydrologic extremes, eddies Integrated Earth System Model: Tighter coupling between human activity (e.g. water, land, energy use) and climate (effects on energy, biosphere) “Visualization” development of tools for analysis and visualization of large and diverse (spatio-temporal) model and observational datasets

16CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future: CSSEF 3 Science Themes: Numerics Testbeds Uncertainty Quantification 3 Components: Atmosphere Land Ocean and Sea-Ice 8 Labs: ANL BNL LANL LBNL LLNL ORNL PNNL SNL 3 Research Directions: Hydrologic simulation improvement Variable-resolution numerical methods Carbon cycle uncertainty reduction

17CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling : COSIM Develop advanced ocean and ice models for evaluating the role of ocean and ice in high- latitude climate change and projecting impacts of high-latitude change on regions throughout the globe. Science drivers –Ice sheets and sea level rise –Stability of ocean circulation –Arctic biogeochemistry and rapid ice retreat Model development –POP/HYPOP/MPAS-Ocean –CICE –Glimmer-CISM –CCSM –High resolution and multi-resolution climate eddy resolving models

18CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Priorities for CLIVAR Consideration Looking at the Earth System as an integrated whole, while identifying science gaps –Examples the hydrologic cycle (atmosphere, surface, below ground) –Sea Level rise (ice-sheets, oceans, coasts) –High latitude system (carbon cycle, hydrology, biogeochemical processes, clouds) Inter-agency Collaboration on solicitations that Complement Strengths –Activities that enhance collaboration between Ocean Modeling and observations What changing priorities in your agency require US CLIVAR to consider expanding or moving in new directions?

19CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science Priorities for CLIVAR Consideration Address Challenges due to Increasing Volume of Model Data, Next Generation Data Analysis, Validation and Verification Needs –Increasing Data Challenges IPCC AR4 ~35 TB; AR5 > 3 PB (100 fold increase) By 2030, the combined model and observational records are projected to increase by another factor of 100 –Easy analysis and diagnostics capabilities Dedicated infrastructure to support increasing data volume and focused investments in “user-friendly” software tools to work with the data –Validation and Verification of models Agile frameworks to synthesize observations (e.g. from satellites, field campaigns, and surface networks) with model output, either embedded in the model code or in post-processing frameworks –Data Provenance Issues What changing priorities in your agency require US CLIVAR to consider expanding or moving in new directions?