Presenter Chris Zganjar Spatial Data Analyses Chris Zganjar, Barry Baker, Earl Saxon Multivariate Cluster Analyses Bill Hargrove, Forrest Hoffman Special Thanks Robert Hijmans Ecoregions under Climate Change A Global Risk Assessment

Climate Change is coming to an Ecoregion near you

The Nature Conservancy’s 2015 Goal By 2015, The Nature Conservancy will work with others to ensure the effective conservation of places that represent at least 10%* of every Major Habitat Type on Earth.

Where, When, and How Much? Can we identify areas of potential refugia? Can we identify areas of severe environmental change?

Multivariate Clustering Magnitude of Environmental Change Applications Topics

Multivariate Clustering Magnitude of Environmental Change Applications Topics

Köppen Classifying Earth’s Systems Omernik Each framework uses different sets of criteria to address different purposes. Bailey Thorntwaite Holdridge Walter and Box

Elevation Compound Topographic Index Potential Solar Radiation Available Water Capacity Soil Bulk Density Soil Carbon Density Total Soil Nitrogen Potential Evapotranspiration Precipitation Driest Quarter Precipitation Wettest Quarter Mean Temperature Coldest Q Mean Temperature Warmest Q Bio Temperature Diurnal Temperature Stable Factors Unstable Factors Multivariate Clustering

A1FI B1 Emission Scenarios

Spatially Explicit ©David Viner Cell Size: 2.5 o lat x 3.75 o lon

topographic variables 2 Models - 2 Scenarios soil variables climate variables Stable Grid Cells: 4 square kilometers Current 2050 A B A1 UKMO Hadley NCAR / DOE Multivariate Clustering

topographic variables 2 Models - 2 Scenarios soil variables climate variables Stable Current 2050 A B A1 UKMO Hadley NCAR / DOE Geographic Attributes REMOVED Multivariate Clustering

Topographic variables Soil variables Climate variables ONLY Geographic and Temporal Attributes REMOVED Multivariate Clustering

Data, Data, Data

Oak Ridge National Laboratory William W. Hargrove & Forrest M. Hoffman Multivariate Clustering

Clusters in a 3-dimensional data space Unique combinations of topographic, soil and climate factors are identified regardless of where or when they occur Sphere color and size indicate the number of map cells per cluster Multivariate Clustering

5000 clusters representing current environmental clusters

Multivariate Clustering 5000 clusters representing environmental clusters in Climate Models - 2 Emission Scenarios

Multivariate Clustering Magnitude of Environmental Change Applications Topics

Magnitude of Change

Ensemble Mean Environmental Change Maps 2 Models 2 Scenarios

Current 2050 Potential Refugia

2050 Measure of Climate Change Severity Critical Threat Current

Multivariate Clustering Magnitude of Environmental Change Applications Topics

Least Change Greatest Change 16km 2 Grid Cell 803 Bailey Ecoregions 500 Current Domains Global data aggregation at three different scales Projected Refugia Highest Risk for Vulnerable Targets

Projected magnitude of environmental change under an ensemble mean of 2 GCMs using 2 emission scenarios for 2050, aggregated by Bailey Ecoregions for use by The Nature Conservancy in setting Global Priorities

Projected magnitude of environmental change under an ensemble mean of 2 GCMs using 2 emission scenarios for 2050, aggregated by current domains for use by The Nature Conservancy in setting Global Priorities

Least Change Greatest Change World Database on Protected Areas Projected Refugia Highest Risk for Vulnerable Targets

Least Change Greatest Change Projected Refugia Highest Risk for Vulnerable Targets World Database on Protected Areas

Projected magnitude of environmental change under an ensemble mean of 2 GCMs using 2 emission scenarios for 2050, aggregated by ecoregions for use by the UNESCO World Heritage Sites Least Change Greatest Change

Where, When, and How Much? Can we identify areas of potential refugia? Can we identify areas of severe environmental change? Yes, We recommend early action to effectively conserve large areas in ecoregions with lowest projected magnitude of change Yes, We recommend and long-term management action to protect the most vulnerable conservation targets in areas of greatest projected magnitude of environmental change.

Thank you!