Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now December 16, 2013 Flattening the Duck Dynamic Grid Solutions for Integrating Renewables

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 2 The California ISO Duck Chart (2012 – 2020) 5,300 MW 8-11am Potential over-generation Potential over-generation 13,100 MW 5-8pm

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 3 CAISO Duck Chart (2020 Issues) 5,300 MW 8-11am Potential over-generation Potential over-generation 13,100 MW 5-8pm

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 4 Flatten the Duck – Import/Export Import/Export

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 5 Flatten the Duck – Curtail Baseload Generation Rather than address over-generation with more natural gas generation, California can strategically plan maintenance on baseload plants during shoulder months. Source: CAISO Summer Loads and Resources Assessment CAISO planned outages ranged up to 7000 MW per weekday in the summer of 2012.

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 6 Flatten the Duck – Demand Response Demand Response

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 7 Addressing the Duck Chart with Energy Storage Energy Storage

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 8 Addressing the Duck Chart with Curtailment Curtailment

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 9 Flattening the Duck: All Solutions

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now Back-up Slides

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 11 Import/Export Assumptions

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 12 Import/Export Assumptions Source: CAISO 2013 Summer Loads & Resources Assessment (May 6, 2013) 2012 Peak Daily ISO Imports = ~11,500 MW

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 13 Demand Response Assumptions

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 14 Energy Storage Assumptions

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 15 Curtailment Assumptions

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 16 CAISO Duck Chart (2020 vs. 2013) Lowest net load: 11,700 MW around 1pm Highest net load: 25,000 MW at 8pm

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 17 Natural Gas Plants Have Integration Costs Renewables have predictable variability. Fossil fuel power plants often shut down unexpectedly, forcing energy consumers to foot the bill for reserves and frequency response. Source: CAISO Summer Loads and Resources Assessment More than half of the outages associated with conventional generation are unplanned.