Richelle Winkler & Collin Payne Wisconsin High School Graduate Projections Presentation for the University of Wisconsin System March 13, 2008

State of Wisconsin: High School Graduate History and Projections,

How do APL projections compare to WICHE?

Why are graduates projected to decline? K-12 School Enrollment is declining. Between , 69% of school districts declined. Age structure of K-12 students is older. Births in Wisconsin were low in 1990s and early 2000s.

Wisconsin’s K-12 School Enrollment, Fall 2006

Births to Wisconsin Mothers,

Wisconsin Births by Race/Ethnicity,

Wisconsin Workforce Development Areas

Projected % Change in Graduates by WDA,

Projected Change in High School Graduates

High School Graduate Projections by Sex,

Public High School Graduate Projections by Race/Ethnicity

The proportion of graduates who are persons of color is increasing

Wisconsin Age Structure by Race/Ethnicity

Public High School Graduation Rates by Race/Ethnicity

Public High School Graduation Rates by Sex and Race/Ethnicity, 2003

Plans to Pursue a College Education by Race/Ethnicity

Plans to Pursue a College Education by WDA

Summary Points  Peak numbers 2008, then projected decline  Similar trends for males and females overall  Similar for different race/ethnic groups, except Hispanics who will see substantial increase  Changing race/ethnic make-up of population under 18 will likely introduce new challenges and opportunities Wisconsin’s Public School Enrollment: Past, Present, Future