Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market Consultant Scanning for Planning CIL 2006 Alane Wilson Senior Library Market Consultant Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market Consultant

Trend Spotting started here for OCLC OCLC’s scanning path began here…. Environmental Scanning seems to have come into being as a definable, named subject in the late 60s, the same time that World Future Society was created and gave shape to the new practice of futurism although future studies has its roots in war studies from an earlier era. There is a Professional Futurists Association but many people who do “futuring” don’t have “futurist” as a job title. Whatever the title, these people map paths among trends, spotting threads and stories, speculating on the opportunities and risks that may result Trend Spotting started here for OCLC

Why Do This? Western Union Personal computer Amazoogle, YaBay, An “outside-in” analysis of how things will change what we do is important….disruptive innovations make it easier for people to do something that historically required deep expertise or great wealth Alexander Graham Bell apparently offered Western Union the patents to his invention for about $2 million in today’s $$. WU turned him down. In declining to make the purchase the president said: what use could this company make of an electrical toy? 1878 – first telephone company. 1910, AT&T acquired a controlling interest in WU. Why did a market leader fail? Many reasons but one is relevant for us: investments in the core business kept trumping investments in new business. Western Union Personal computer Amazoogle, YaBay, Skating where the puck will be

Can we predict the future? NO Futuring: 4 Questions Can we predict the future? Can we know the future? Can we control the future? Can we influence the future? NO YES NO YES

The Four Types of Change A reminder…trends are just one of the drivers of change….and the discontinuous given change is impossible to plan for and so it is important to remember that all futures are scenarios, and not just best-case, worst-case…plausible is good Continuous Discontinuous Trends Aging Economic growth Events Fall of Berlin Wall September 11 Improvements Market share Fewer defects Transformations New leadership New vision Given Chosen From Dr Peter C Bishop, University of Houston

Prediction and Forecasting Physical evidence Strong assumptions Unitary phenomenon Higher quality inferences Forecasting Intangible evidence Weak assumptions Multiple possibilities Lower quality inferences From Dr Peter C Bishop, University of Houston

Forecasts - Two Approaches Traditional Forecasting Futures Forecasting Short-term horizon Long-term horizon Single domain Many domains Few factors Many factors Focus on continuity Focus on discontinuity Hide uncertainty Reveal uncertainty Single forecast Alternative forecasts Quantitative techniques Qualitative techniques In summary, then, most forecasters pursue the future according to the characteristics on the left. Futurists deal with the future using the means on the right—quite a difference in approach. From Dr Peter C Bishop, University of Houston

Strategic priorities and plan of action Scenarios enhance creativity in visioning Scanning for trends Identify key forces Scenario matrix narratives Vision Mission Goals Likely and alternative futures Preferred Futures Generation of new strategies Evaluation of new and existing strategies Strategic priorities and plan of action Diagram from the Institute for Alternative Futures www.altfutures.com Are strategies robust? Do they work in most or all scenarios? Do strategies align with vision, mission and goals? Trends, scenarios, visions and strategies are the parts are decision making—overt or not. Here’s the interconnections between the parts of “futuring”. On the left: scanning for trends generates insights that lead to identification of key forces. These key forces then become the major variables in the different scenarios that are developed about the future. Scenarios aid in the evaluation of strategies by posing several sets of conditions that strategies can be tested against. On the right, vision, mission and goals are linked…the first and most fundamental step is the articulation of a clear, inspiring and ambitious vision. Then the mission clearly sets out the organization’s role in achieving the vision. Concrete goals that can be completed in a specified time frame are needed to make a tangible plan of action

What is Environmental Scanning? What is not included in this definition is that information itself will not bring about change. It doesn’t cause people to act differently “Environmental scanning focuses on the identification of emerging issues, situations and potential pitfalls that may affect an organization…in essence, it is a method for identifying, collecting and translating information about external influences into useful plans and decisions.” Kendra S Albright, “Environmental Scanning: Radar for Success.” Information Management Journal, 38(3), May/June 2004.

Content of an Environmental Scan STEEP Social, technological, environmental, economic, political landscapes PEST(LE) Political, economic, social, technology (legislative, environmental) SETRLL Social, economic, technology, research & learning, libraries Whatever!

Trend Spotting A statistically significant change in performance of measured data which is unlikely to be due to a random variation in the process. A manifestation of something that has unlocked or newly serviced an existing consumer need, desire or value. Trends are the momentum of society, we’re heading in that direction It’s about observing, reading, musing, synthesizing and understanding

This Isn’t a Trend It’s a disaster… Best not to be here

The 3 Main Challenges Management and corporate culture Resources They’re just not that into trends Resources Time, funds, attention Understanding and applying trends Thinking BIG and…so what?

Management and corporate culture Greatest friends or foes? Language can be a barrier. Trends can sound like teenagers in Japan dressed in maids costumes, or fashion designers talking about 6 inch platform shoes. Make sure trends aren’t cooincidentally exactly the same as your own pet obsessions….you’re the reporter. Show examples, show effects. It’s not about you. Don’t present numbers. Make it visual. Demonstrate. It’s important, you must have the support of the suits whether that’s your library director, the provost or the mayor.

Resources -papers, websites, blogs, news, newsletters, magazines, books, radio, seminars, trade shows, eaves-dropping, watching, conversations, strategic plans, advertising, gurus and thinkers, customers, trend reports -make a trend team at work even if it’s just people who like to toss ideas around at lunch or over a beer Look cross discipline, cross industry, not in libraryland…usually. Be open minded…nothing is off limits Ask questions…why is this interesting to people, why do I keep seeing x, hearing y, Too much, not enough, too expensive, no time, who cares I’m retiring…

Understanding and Applying Trends This part will appeal to most librarians…categorizing How do all the trends relate to one another? What’s the context? Ask if the trend has the potential to influence the library’s vision, suggest new services and experiences for patrons Present trends and ideas to others…clarity will come…make it fun Back to STEEP, PEST and SETRLL

The Amazoogle* Effect Comprehensive Accessible Immediate gratification Market-of-One (Lorcan Dempsey, OCLC, coined the word “Amazoogle”) There are 80 million "mini-boomers" just in the U.S. between the ages of 4- 24. This is larger than the size of the original baby boomers. This is the first generation that is growing up completely digital. They expect customization They want to be able to change their minds They try before they buy They scrutinize They collaborate *Coined by Lorcan Dempsey, OCLC VP of Research

Convenience Trumps Quality Scientists: Google Yahoo PubMed Librarians: Science Direct ISI Web of Science MedLine “In a survey for this lecture, librarians and scientists were asked to name the top scientific and medical search resources that they use or are aware of.  The difference is startling.” What this seems to indicate is that the carefully selected sources we make available to our academic communities are being undervalued in favor of freely accessible resources that we know are not of the same quality. Why? Maybe it’s a matter of convenience. Maybe the word “reliable” was interpreted as “most easily accessible”. The 3 resources named by scientists are on the desktop, a few clicks away. The ones named by librarians are usually buried inside the library web site just like valuable but dusty material languishes in the stacks of the physical library. So let’s not think of this as an educational opportunity for our user community. Let’s think of it as an educational opportunity for us, the library community. Source: John Regazzi, “The Battle for Mindshare: A battle beyond access and retrieval” http://www.nfais.org/publications/mc_lecture_2004.htm

Libraries in the “infosphere” 2004 Institutional Content Web Context Special Collections Published Content The challenges for libraries given this new framework are significant. The opportunities for libraries given this new framework are equally exciting.

College Students - Use of electronic resources From Perceptions of Libraries and Information Resources: A report to the OCLC membership, 2006 Q855

Why haven’t you ever used the online library Web site? From Perceptions of Libraries and Information Resources: A report to the OCLC membership, 2006

How do you select which electronic information source to use? From Perceptions of Libraries and Information Resources: A report to the OCLC membership, 2006 Q715

…is the information you get from library sources more or less trustworthy than information you get from search engines? From Perceptions of Libraries and Information Resources: A report to the OCLC membership, 2006 Q1205

…is the information you get from library sources more or less trustworthy than information you get from search engines? From Perceptions of Libraries and Information Resources: A report to the OCLC membership, 2006 Q1205

Decreased activities due to Internet use From Perceptions of Libraries and Information Resources: A report to the OCLC membership, 2006 Read books 21% 26% Listen to the radio 26% 14% 39% Visit with friends/family in person Read the newspaper Watch television

“Lifestyle fit” of information sources From Perceptions of Libraries and Information Resources: A report to the OCLC membership, 2006 Total Respondents Q1345

The Library – An Idea Amplifier? “If a CEO can see his company as primarily an idea amplifier, then he can understand his "brand" properly. Vision doesn't require molecules, it never did. What it requires is something worth believing in.” Hugh Macleod – gapingvoid.com

Last Thoughts…Finding a Vision “We are here to find meaning. We are here to help other people do the same. Everything else is secondary.” Hugh Macleod – gapingvoid.com

The Internet of Things “spimes” & “blogjets”

So long, and thanks for all the fish

I’d like to acknowledge the ideas and content I’ve used here from Dr I’d like to acknowledge the ideas and content I’ve used here from Dr. Peter C. Bishop, futurist and faculty member at the University of Houston, and from Trendwatching.com, a trendspotting company.