Israel’s National Security Doctrine Limmud Conference

The Strategy of Strategic Surprise Situational Strategic Irrelevant 'interpretive conceptual system' in terms of understanding the individual relative to his environment An event in which information was lacking, the information didn’t arrive in time or wasn’t properly analyzed Lanir uses the same terms but explains them slightly differently He then says that all of these are situational surprises – what Heifetz calls a technical challenge – if we had all the information we would not have been surprised. An example he gives is the YK war where they had all the info – but were still surprised Fundamental Surprise meanwhile is the incompatability of perception of self with reality – example of husband fidning wife cheating – for her its situational, for him its fundamental – to solve it, Lanir talks about fundamental learning – there is no algorithm which provides reasoned steps…it requires a jump from reductionism to holism. Need tolerance for uncertainty, to challenge calculated rationality In order to deal with these situations, one needs to undergo fundamental learning / change one’s personal perception (Mindset)

The Process of Strategic Surprise Change in priorities and values Stage 4: Fundamental Learning Strategic Surprise Situational (Technical) response to Fundamental (Adaptive) Problem Stage 3: Denial Strategic Surprise Strategic Surprise Difference that makes the difference Stage 2: Incubation Copying without translating New trend in the neighborhood? Stage 1: Relevancy Relevancy Gap

The Israeli Context Need for Substantive Broad Long Term View Complex Challenges Short, Unstable Tenures Volatile Environment Fragmentation of Knesset and Government Need for Substantive Broad Long Term View Incentive for Short Term Thinking Address for Decision Makers Training Future Strategists Model to Emulate

Strategic Surprise in Israel’s National Security Stage 3: Denial Strategic Surprise Strategic Surprise Stage 2: Incubation האיום הקיומי הוא פיזי Stage 1: Relevancy Relevancy Gap הזירה המרכזית: צבאית צה"ל הגורם העיקרי

Israel’s National Security Mindset Pol Dip Challenge Legitimacy for Jewish homeland London Conference White Paper 1939 Facilitating Jewish Aliya Political- diplomatic arena Military- security arena Organizing logic It doesn’t matter what the goyim say. It matters what the Jews do (Ben Gurion) Military vs. Security Activism Ben Gurion’s Seminar Partition Plan: Arabs threaten to invade Sec. Doctrine: IL win war Alliance with Superpower (France / US) Alliance of Periphery 1933 1939 1947 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000~ Time 6

Israel’s Traditional Security Doctrine List of Threats Main Working Assumptions Conventional: Army Existential Threat: Physical Terror / Guerilla Main Arena: Military Security Nuclear IDF protect the nation Deterrence So enemy won’t initiate war Early Warning To prepare forces Decisive Victory Over enemy Creating an Iron Wall Strategic Early Warning Closeness to Superpower Ambiguous Nuclear Policy Home-Front Role Secondary Force planning: Tanks and Planes Large Army relative to population relevancy Quick Decisive Victory High quality intelligence agencies Striving for short wars Keeping strong army w/o economic collapse Army responsible for home front Special relations with USA Taking war onto enemy’s territory Controlling territory main leverage 1960 1970 1980 1990 Time 7 7

Updates to Israel’s Security Doctrine Meridor Commission: Defence Low intensity conflict The Dahiya Doctrine Guiding Assumptions of Nat Sec unchanged Arena: Military IDF responsible

Divergent Reality: The Resistance Network Base: Middle East Nasrallah: “We do not need tanks and planes… [Israel] is weaker than a spider web.” (7/31/06) Abu Mussa Marzouk: “failure of the political process will bring about the destruction of Israel (5/15/07) Characteristics: Islamist (Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah) Main Strategy: Undermine 2SS / ‘Logic of Implosion’ Main Tactics: Asymmetrical Warfare, ‘overstretch’ Synchronized Victories: Need strong foreign affairs establishment IDF responsible for protecting nation Military Superiority New non conventional tactics required. Home Front + Diplomatic also essential Main Arena: Security Deterrence, Early Warning, Decisive Victory Resistance Network focuses on soft underbelly – asymmetric warfare, international arena and home front Existential Threat Military

Divergent Reality: Strategic A-Symmetry Hierarchical top-down structure Flat network based structure Finality of claims / Peace Permanent Resistance High intensity / Victory Low intensity / Attrition / Implosion No civilian casualties Attack civilians / Human shields IL Arabs = domestic issue IL Arabs = Strategic leverage Battleground: Military field Battleground: Home front & intl. arena Control over PL = Military Necessity Control over PL = Strategic Asset Authority with responsibility Authority w/o responsibility

Divergent Reality: Delegitimization Network Base: Europe & North America Characteristics: Red-Green Alliance, global spread, focused around hubs & catalysts Main Strategy: Promote 1SS / turn IL into pariah state Main Tactics: BDS, lawfare, apartheid parallels The key: Blur difference between delegitimizers & critics Red Green Liberalising the arguments Essentialism Liberal Elite: From Kibbutz to Kibbush Demonization: IL= apartheid Coercion only way: BDS Lawfare Double standards / singling out

The Feedback Loop Flotilla planned for 16 months in countries friendly to IL Delegitimization Network Resistance Network Hamas drew upon Europe-based Muslim Brotherhood network Fundamental Delegit Implosion threat Advance 1SS narrative Undermine 2SS The Flotilla represents an evolved stage in the two networks’ coordination 12 12 12

Crisis in Israel’s National Security Attacks on Israel are nothing new New dynamic – new threat (advancing 1SS) Israel’s position vis-à-vis Western Govts remains stable Increasing threat from Liberal Progressive Elite Commitment to peace & HR vital – but there will always be an outstanding issue (Shebaa Farms Syndrome): Hasbara important but delegitimization is ideology driven Main Problem: Hasbara / Policy

Creation of Existential Political Threat De-Legitimacy Demonization 3rd World Pact Bottom Up Processes Change in Balance of Power US: Asset to Liability? Danger: Turning Into Pariah State Intl Inversion towards 2SS 14 14 14