Government Programs and Social Outcomes: The United States in Comparative Perspective Timothy Smeeding Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School Syracuse University and Luxembourg Income Study Smolensky Conference “Poverty, the Distribution of Income and Public Policy” University of California- Berkeley, December 12-13, 2003

I. Introduction A.Odes to Geno B.U.S. in a Comparative Context: Alike or Idiosyncratic? 1.Issues 2.Policies 3.Solutions

C.Public Programs and Social Outcomes 1.Poverty (not welfare reform) is a Major Social Outcome 2.Effects of Public Programs on Other Social Outcomes: Equality of Opportunity; Physical and Mental Well-Being

3.Criteria to Judge Policy: a.Adequacy and Packaging (Family, State, Market) b.Self-sustainability and Cost-effectiveness c.“Fair Chance” and Upward Mobility d.Unintended Consequences e.Fitting with National Values (e.g., self reliance) f.Effects on Broader Measures of Well-being

D.Rest of Paper 1.Concepts and Measures 2.Data, Nations, and Macro-Comparisons 3.Poverty and Policy 4.Relative and Real Economic Well-Being, More Generally 5.Conclusions: Policy and Research Implications

II. Measurement Issues A.Poverty: Income vs. Needs B.Real vs. Relative Standards of Living and Income Position 1.Use of PPPs 2.Economic Distance and Equality of Opportunity 3.Fair Chance: Poverty and Low Real Incomes C.Other Choices: Unit, Periods

III. Data, Countries, Macro A.Macro Comparisons (Table 1) B.Social Spending in Context (Figure 1) C.How about Spending on Elders; Health; Education?

IV. Poverty A.Overall Level (Table 2) B.Trend (Table 3) C.Anti-Poverty Effect of Taxes and Transfers: 1.Big Picture (Figure 2) 2.Details (Table 4)

IV. Poverty (con’t) D.Critical Groups 1.Elders (Table 5) 2.Parents and Kids (Table 6) E.Role of Education and Work 1.Lowly Educated (Table 7) 2.Work Effort and Poverty (Tables 8, 9)

IV. Poverty (con’t) E.Summary: What Do We Know? 1.Americans are Poorer 2.American Work More and Get Less Benefits 3.Would a Different Set of Measures Matter?

V. Well-Being and Income Distribution A.Relative and Real Living Standards: Trading Off Standard of Living vs. Level of Inequality B.“Real” Comparisons Once Again

C.Results 1.All (Figure 3) 2.Elders (Figure 4) 3.Children: Fair Chance and Equality of Opportunity a.Children with Two Parents (Figure 5) b.Children with One Parent (Figure 6)

V. Well-Being and Income Distribution (con’t) D.Discussion 1.Inequality vs. Other Social Objectives 2.Policy and Inequality: Providing a Fair Chance: e.g., Blair and the United Kingdom

VI. Conclusions: Policy and Research Implications A.Poverty Reduction as a Policy Goal B.What Matters: Low Pay and Income Support C.Work Alone Won’t Do D.A Will and a Way: Spending on the Working Poor E.American Solutions for American Problems: 1.Elders 2.Working Poor

F.Research Implications: 1.Follow the Working Poor and See How They Do 2.Effect of Work and Low Pay on Children 3.Decide on a Role for SSI in Social Policy