Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Cooperative Efforts Can Drive Down the Accident Rate Margaret Gilligan Government Co-Chair, CAST December 7, 2005 Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Cooperative Efforts Can Drive Down the Accident Rate European Civil Aviation Conference One Hundred and Twenty-Fourth Meeting of the Directors General of Civil Aviation Margaret Gilligan Government Co-Chair, CAST December 7, 2005

Accident Rates in the U.S. and Western Europe Have Dropped Dramatically Over the Years Accidents Per Million Flight Hours Accident Rate Fatal Accident Rate U. S. Part 121-Type Operations 1946 To 2004 Current accident rates are incredibly low Challenge is to drive them lower Note: 2004 is based on a pro-rata of data through May, 2004.

Broad implementation of VOR and DME Radar introduced at selected towers Vickers-700 Turboprop (1953 in UK, 1956 US) DC-7 (1955), Lockheed Electra Radio contact, ATC centers & cruise aircraft Pressurized Aircraft into fleet (L-049, DC-6 & B- 377) Earliest ILS (Glide slope, LOC & markers) Long-Range radar (Centers) Jet Engine; 707 (1958) & DC-8 VOR/DME integrated into autopilot (precision approaches) Secondary radar RNAV (processing VOR/DME & basic Instruments) GPWS, TCAS; Early automation FMS CRM & 6-Axis Simulator & FDR Windshear Cabin Safety Major Fatal Accidents Per Million Departures History Shows New Capabilities and Appropriately Focused Actions Reduced Accident Rate FOQA/ASAP & ATC Data RJ Revolution New Large Jets Cooperative safety agenda 5

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies Initiatives were combined into CAST Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic Safety Plan Developed In place and fully supported by Government and Industry with Worldwide Recognition - “CAST”

CAST Goals Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

Gov’t and Industry Focused Action Led to Dramatic Reduction in Wind Shear Accidents Wind Shear Accidents 727 New Orleans 7/9/ Doha 3/14/79 DC-9 Philadelphia 6/23/ Denver 8/7/ Pago 1/30/74 DC-9 Charlotte 7/2/94 L1011 Dallas-ft. Worth 8/2/85 DC-10 Faro 12/21/ Training/ Pilot Guide R Reactive Wind Shear Systems Predictive Wind Shear Systems Enhancements

The CAST Agenda Was Developed to Address the Major Types of Accidents That Have Occurred in the Past Number of fatal accidents 91 total Note: Accidents involving multiple, non-onboard fatalities are included Accidents involving single, non-onboard fatalities are excluded Fatalities/accidents are placed in one category only. * CFIT = Controlled Flight Into Terrain ** RTO = Refused Takeoff *** 2004 is based on Preliminary Data. Fatalities 2 CFIT*In-flight fire Mid-air collision Fuel tank explosion LandingTakeoff config- uration Fuel exhaustion Wind shear Runway incursion Loss of control in flight Unknown Turbulence RTO**Misc. fatality Total Fatalities = 5,828 (5,530 onboard) 2004 fatalities = 186 (186 onboard) Structure , Takeoff AT-071 Ice/Snow/ Heavy Rain 1 1

CAST Organizational Structure

* Representing P&W and RR ** Observer AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing GE* RAA FSF CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda Industry Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Government DOD FAA Aircraft Certification Flight Standards Air Traffic Operations Research NASA ICAO** JAA TCCA NATCA** NTSB** EASA IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA**

Safety enhancement development Master safety plan Enhancement effectiveness Future areas of study Data analyses CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

NTSB Accident Incident Reports 21.3 Reports Airclaims data Implementation Strategy JSIT Historical Data Pareto Plots JSAT NASDAC data Causal Analysis Combined Threat Cause Accident Safety Analysis Process Industry FOQA data JSAT Intervention Strategy Coordinated Plan Measuring Progress to Goal Industry Government Safer Skies AvSP

Safety Enhancement Indicator 1. Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS) Reduction in MSAW alerts Reduction in MSAW alerts Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT) Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT) 4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7- 11,18) Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approaches Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approaches Continuous reduction in selected metrics Continuous reduction in selected metrics 21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades – New Type Designs (1-3) Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below decision height Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below decision height 23. ALAR Flight Crew Training – one project Continuous reduction in the number of busted approach gates Continuous reduction in the number of busted approach gates Continuous reduction in altitude busts Continuous reduction in altitude busts 27. LOC Policies and Procedures – Risk Assessments and Management – one project Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in place Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in place Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals Safety Metrics Examples

Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction APPROVED PLAN Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) Resource Cost ($ Millions) Risk Reduction Total Cost in $ (Millions) % 25% 50% 75% 100% Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements Completed

Dollars/Flt. Cyc Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle 73% Risk reduction Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST 2007 levels Cost Savings

All Regions Combined Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide Accidents Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide (2007 Implementation Values) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% TotalCFIT LOC-I SCF-PP SCF-NP ICE Midair FIRE-NI FUEL RI ARC RE USOS WSTRW ADRM OTHER-BIRD Portion of Risk Risk Eliminated Risk Remaining Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy

CAST Shared Safety Products Have Contributed to Accident Fatality Risk Reduction Worldwide Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2004 Accidents per million departures (2004 rate) United States and Canada 0.4 Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 Europe China 0.5 Middle East 2.7 Africa 12.3 Asia 1.7 Oceania 0.0 (Excluding China) C.I.S. 1 CAST 47 SEs 73% reduction PAAST CFIT and ALAR JSSI 35 SEs 62% reduction ASET Early stages COSCAP CIS Early stages COSCAP Asia 27 SEs in work (China) 60% reduction World 0.74 ( 1 insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate)

The Aviation System is Undergoing Significant Change The Aviation System is Undergoing Significant Change Public Safety Expectation

Our Future Focus Must be Guided by Hazards Identified Through Safety Information Sharing and Problems and Solutions Addressed by a Cooperative Industry/Government Approach Effectiveness metrics Effectiveness metrics System monitoring for emerging risks and dynamic changes System monitoring for emerging risks and dynamic changes Isolated data sources combined and leveraged through extensive data sharing Isolated data sources combined and leveraged through extensive data sharing

Isolated Data Sources Can Be Combined to Leverage the Power of Safety Info. Data Sharing Highlight Possible Safety Issues ASAP Legacy Weather MRO VASIP Firewall ECCAIRS ROMAN COS DATA NAOMS FOQA NASDAC ASRS Other PDARS

Conclusions CAST has an effective data-driven process CAST has an effective data-driven process CAST brings together all the key players CAST brings together all the key players – Air Carriers – Manufacturers – Air Carriers – Manufacturers – Employee Groups – Government – Employee Groups – Government Predicted 73% risk reduction by 2007 Predicted 73% risk reduction by 2007 CAST is committed to worldwide participation CAST is committed to worldwide participation CAST is moving to develop proactive processes to identify changing and emerging risks CAST is moving to develop proactive processes to identify changing and emerging risks History shows focused action and introduction of new capabilities have led to large accident rate reductions History shows focused action and introduction of new capabilities have led to large accident rate reductions Joint industry and government teams working together to a common agenda can further enhance the safety of our very safe aviation system. Can we meet the challenge? Joint industry and government teams working together to a common agenda can further enhance the safety of our very safe aviation system. Can we meet the challenge?