On the top? Dávid Németh chief economist 27 November 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

on the top? Dávid Németh chief economist 27 November 2014

growth outlook 2

development of investments

stagnation of investment in 2015

annual growth rate of lending to non-financial corporates

how consumption may develop?

contribution to GDP growth (demand side) Forrás: KSH, K&H

inflation 8

infláció a fejlett gazdaságokban

10 inflációs várakozások a régióban

inflationary development Forrás: KSH, MNB, K&H market priced goods and services vs. CPI alcohol, tobacco vs. CPIregulated prices vs. CPI

capital markets

base rate in the developed countries (%)

decreasing rate environment in the region (%) Forrás: NBH. K&H, Bloomberg

the tables have turned Balance sheet of major central banks (in own currency)

market environment development of IRS (%) Forrás: K&H, Bloomberg

does develuation continue? Forrás: NBH. K&H, Bloomberg

stability 18

changes in savings of sectors (% of GDP)

breakdown of net external debt by sectors (% of GDP)

gross public debt (% of GDP)

duration of debt (year, average)

who is dangerous?

correlation between corporate lending and non-performing loans Forrás: NBH. K&H, Bloomberg

household foreign currency loans as a percentage of GDP in regional comparison Forrás: NBH. K&H, Bloomberg

developments in the loan-to-deposit ratio in an international comparison Forrás: NBH. K&H, Bloomberg