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Dan M. Kahan Yale University & Katie Carpenter & many others What can the science of science communication do for science filmmaking?

Soute Cultural Cognition Project SE Fla. evidence-based science communication initiative

What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators?

Everything I know about climate science communication:

What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? Everything I know about climate science communication: What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are.

What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? Everything I know about climate science communication: What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are.

What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? Everything I know about climate science communication: What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are.

“Belief” in evolution

probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’s 1011 & Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). “Electrons are smaller than atoms.” (True/false) Science literacy: item response functions Science literacy score 50th percentile 2nd percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile Science literacy score 98th percentile 50th percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 98th percentile probability of correct answer “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity 2nd percentile

probability of correct answer “Electrons are smaller than atoms.” (True/false) Science literacy: item response functions Science literacy score 50th percentile 2nd percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile Science literacy score 98th percentile 50th percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 98th percentile probability of correct answer Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity “According to the theory of evolution, human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity 2nd percentile Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’s 988 & Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press).

Teaching evolution to “nonbelievers”

“Belief” in global warming

Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’ = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). CIs reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press).

“Belief” in global warming Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’ = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). CIs reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press).

“Belief” in global warming global warming risk Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’ = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). CIs reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Annenberg Center for Public Policy & CCPt. N’ = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press).

“Belief” in global warming global warming risk Annenberg Center for Public Policy & CCPt. N’ = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’ = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). CIs reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press).

“Belief” in global warming global warming risk Annenberg Center for Public Policy & CCPt. N’ = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’ = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). CIs reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press).

“Climate science literacy” battery Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press)

“Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False] “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Climate science literacy: item response functions probability of correct answer Climate science literacy score 50th percentile 2nd percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile Climate science literacy score 98th percentile 50th percentile 2nd percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 98th percentile probability of correct answer Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican

No. correct Human causedNaturally causedNo warming Positions on global warming in “past few decades” Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). “Climate science literacy” and global warming “beliefs”

Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Climate science literacy r = 0.32, p < 0.01 Science literacy score 50th percentile 2nd percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 98th percentile 2nd percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 98th percentile 50th percentile Climate science literacy & general science literacy

Climate science literacy r = 0.32, p < 0.01 Science literacy score 50th percentile 2nd percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 98th percentile 2nd percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 98th percentile 50th percentile > avg Left_Right< avg Left_Right Climate science literacy & general science literacy Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press).

“Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False] “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Climate science literacy: item response functions probability of correct answer Climate science literacy score 50th percentile 2nd percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile Climate science literacy score 98th percentile 50th percentile 2nd percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 98th percentile probability of correct answer Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican

“What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Climate science literacy: item response functions probability of correct answer Climate science literacy score 50th percentile 2nd percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile Climate science literacy score 98th percentile 50th percentile 2nd percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 98th percentile probability of correct answer Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican There is “solid evidence” of global warming due to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican

What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? Everything I know about climate science communication: And same goes for Florida... What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are.

“How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” United States as a whole (summer 2013) Southeast Florida (Fall 2013) no risk at all Egalitarian communitarian Hierarch individualist

4 SE Fla. Counties > avg. Left_right 78% agree “Local and state officials should be involved in identifying steps that local communities can take to reduce the risk posed by rising sea levels.” pct. agree “Landuse planners should identify assess and revise existing laws to assure that they reflect the risks posed by rising sea level and extreme weather.” pct. agree Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press)

What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? Everything I know about climate science communication: And same goes for Florida... What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are.

What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? Everything I know about climate science communication: And same goes for Florida... So you tell me! What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are.

What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators?

Not “us vs. them” just us—using what we know Communicate normality

Proselytizing the normality of climate science Homeowner climate scientist Corp. exec. Local businessman

What can the science of science communication do for science filmmaking?

Everything I know about science communication...

Disentangling knowledge from identity Climate: Local govtEvolution: Classroom

What can the science of science communication do for science filmmaking? Everything I know about science communication... So you tell me!

What can the science of science communication do for science filmmaking? Everything I know about science communication... You don’t have to choose between knowing what we know & being who you are to enjoy our cool science films! So you tell me! Great! I’ll measure!!

Dan M. Kahan Yale Law School Donald Braman George Washington University John Gastil University of Washington Geoffrey Cohen Stanford University Paul Slovic University of Oregon Ellen Peters Ohio State University Hank Jenkins-Smith University of Oklahoma David Hoffman Temple Law School Gregory Mandel Temple Law School Maggie Wittlin Cultural Cognition Project Lab Lisa Larrimore-Ouelette Cultural Cognition Project Lab Danieli Evans Cultural Cognition Project Lab June Carbone Univ. Missouri-Kansas City Michael Jones Safra Ethics Center, Harv. Univ. Naomi Cahn George Washington University Jeffrey Rachlinksi Cornell Law School John Byrnes Cultural Cognition Project Lab John Monahan University of Virginia

www. culturalcognition.net “I am you!”