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Dan M. Kahan Yale University The “Science Communication Problem” and Climate Change

1. What the source of the problem isn’t 2. What the source of the problem is 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for effective communication The Science Communication Problem

1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the source of the problem is 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for effective communication The Science Communication Problem

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) PIT prediction: Science Illiteracy & Bounded Rationality High Sci. litearcy/System 2 Low Sci. litearcy/System 1 “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

Lesser Risk Greater Risk Science literacy Numeracy low high perceived risk (z-score) lowhigh PIT prediction actual variance U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the source of the problem is 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for effective communication The Science Communication Problem

1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the source of the problem is: motivated reasoning 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for effective communication The Science Communication Problem

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Individualism industry, technology Abortion procedure Cultural Cognition Worldviews Communitarianism compulsory psychiatric treatment Abortion procedure compulsory psychiatric treatment industry, technology Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Guns/Gun Control

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. Cultural Variance

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarchical Individualist Egalitarian Communitarian Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) Cultural Variance

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Egalitarian Communitarian Cultural variance conditional on sci. literacy/numeracy? Hierarchical Individualist Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score)

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. High Sci lit/numeracy Interaction of culture & sci-lit/num Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ Scilit/num Scale low high High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score)

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. High Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Scilit/num Scale low high Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) Interaction of culture & sci-lit/num

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. High Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Scilit/num Scale low high Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score)

1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the source of the problem is: motivated reasoning 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for effective communication The Science Communication Problem

1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the source of the problem is: motivated reasoning 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for effective communication: two channel strategy The Science Communication Problem

study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Individualism Climate change Cultural Cognition Worldviews Communitarianism Climate change Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

Control Condition

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

Anti-pollution Condition

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

Geoengineering Condition

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

more polarization less polarization Polarization z_Study dismiss 2 anti-pollution

1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the source of the problem is: motivated reasoning 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for effective communication: two channel strategy The Science Communication Problem

Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment Go to