Minimum marriage age laws, child marriage and cumulative fertility: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa Authors: Belinda Maswikwa, MA Linda Richter, PhD Chris Desmond, PhD Jay Kaufman, PhD Arijit Nandi, PhD

Outline Background Research aims Research methods Results Discussion Questions

Background 62.8 million 20-24year olds married before 18

Child marriage Child marriage early child bearing Child marriage higher maternal mortality Child marriage higher child mortality Child marriage higher HIV prevalence Child marriage lower birth weights Child marriage higher total fertility rates

Research aims Focus on three marriage laws General minimum marriage age (civil) Minimum marriage age with parental consent Age of sexual consent Association between all three minimum marriage age laws set at 18 or higher and child marriage (consistent 18 + laws) Association between child marriage and fertility (total children born)

Contribution Gap in the literature Significance South Asia focus – disproportionate burden in Sub-Saharan Africa Few studies of effect of minimum marriage age laws Significance Reproductive health, mortality and morbidity concerns – child marriage and adolescent childbearing UN MDG goals 4 and 5 (child mortality and maternal health)

Research methods

Data sources Child marriage database Demographic and Health Surveys World Policy Analysis Centre at UCLA Captures the legal minimum age of marriage Demographic and Health Surveys Funded by United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Captures population and reproductive health Collaboration with Institute for Health and Social Policy, McGill University, Montreal Canada

Primary Research Question 3 consistent 18+ minimum marriage age laws Occurrence of child marriage Exposure: Marriage age law consistency 0 if any marriage laws < 18 1 if all three marriage laws > 18 Outcomes: Child marriage rates Analysis Risk ratios Weighted and controlled for clustering at country level

Results

Sample Country Year Minimum marriage age Parental Consent Age of Sexual Consent % married before 18 Mean children Countries with 3 consistent 18+ laws Burundi 2010 18 34.0 1.9 Ethiopia 2011 65.7 2.1 Rwanda 21 20.0 1.6 Uganda 57.1 2.2 Mean 20.2 18.8 49.3 2.0 Countries with 3 inconsistent laws Burkina Faso 20 17 13 65.3 Cameroon n/a 15 63.0 Gabon 2012 45.3 1.7 Malawi 14 61.6 Mozambique 16 65.0 Senegal 58.8 Tanzania 54.3 Zimbabwe 45.6 15.6 15.9 59.8 Focus on 15 to 26 year olds. Sample size of 79 567. 41 103 ever married women; 57.1% of them (23 760) married before 18 years. Inconsistencies, marriage age with parental consent lower than age of sexual consent in Gabon and Tanzania

Control variables Wealth quintile Location Education Religion Poorest, Poor, Middle, Richer, Richest Location Rural, Urban - dummy variable Education None (0 years) Primary school (1-6 years), Secondary school ( 7 – 12 years) Post secondary school (+13 years) Religion Muslim, Catholic, Other Christian, Traditional – dummy variables

Results: Law consistency and child marriage Risk ratios (95% confidence intervals) Consistent 18+ laws 0.79 (0.55 to 1.12) Richest quintile (ref)   Richer 1.12*** (1.04 to 1.21) Middle 1.15*** (1.06 to 1.25) Poorer 1.21*** (1.11 to 1.31) Poorest 1.23** (1.10 to 1.38) School years 0.96*** (0.95 to 0.98) Location (rural: urban) 1.10** (1.01 to 1.20) No religion (ref) Muslim 0.97 (0.86 to 1.09) Catholic 0.88* (0.77 to 1.02) Traditional 0.98 (0.85 to 1.13) Other Christian 0.99 (0.90 to 1.09) Source: DHS 2010-2012 Surveys. 95% confidence level in parentheses. Indicates significance at p < .05 **; p < .01 ***; p < .1*

Secondary Research Question 3 consistent 18+ minimum marriage age laws Adolescent Fertility Exposure: Child marriage 0 if first age at marriage >= 18 1 if first age at marriage < 18 Outcomes: Fertility Total children born Analysis Poisson regression Weighted and controlled for clustering at country level

Controls Covariates: Wealth quintile Location Education Age Religion Poorest, Poor, Middle, Richer, Richest Location Rural, Urban - dummy variable Education None (0 years) Primary school (1-6 years), Secondary school ( 7 – 12 years) Post secondary school (+13 years) Age Religion Muslim, Catholic, Protestant, Traditional – dummy variables

Results: child marriage and fertility CEB β coefficients (95% confidence intervals) Child marriage 0.53*** (0.46 to 0.60) Consistent 18+ laws -0.04 (-0.22 to 0.14) Richest quintile (ref)   Richer 0.07*** (0.02 to 0.13) Middle 0.11*** (0.05 to 0.18) Poorer 0.12*** (0.05 to 0.20) Poorest 0.16*** (0.07 to 0.24) School years -0.02*** (-0.03 to 0.00) Location 0.09*** (0.04 to 0.14) Age 0.17*** (0.16 to 0.18) No religion (ref) Muslim -0.05 (-0.13 to 0.04) Catholic -0.01 (-0.09 to 0.06) Other Christian -0.04 (-0.11 to 0.04) Traditional -0.01** (-0.08 to 0.06) Source: DHS 2010-2012 Surveys. 95% confidence level. Indicates significance at p < .05 **; p < .01 ***; p < .1*

Discussion No significant association between law consistency and child marriage at country level Households in countries with consistent minimum marriage age laws of 18 years or over for girls are 21% less likely to have women who marry as children Significant positive association between child marriage and adolescent fertility Girls who marry before the age of 18 years have more children than those who marry as adults. Study limitations Further work

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