When the inevitable happens— rising, not falling crime rates—What to do? DANIEL S. NAGIN CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY STOCKHOLM CRIMINOLOGY SYMPOSIUM JUNE 10, 2014

Three Response from Outside the Criminal Justice System 1.Early childhood enrichment programs 2.Addressing the drug-crime nexus 3.Addressing the mental illness-crime nexus

“It is better to prevent crimes than punish them” --Cesare Beccaria 1764

Two Fallacies of the ‘60s, ‘70s, and ’80s PRISONS ARE AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO PREVENT CRIME

Two Fallacies of the ‘60s, ‘70s, and ’80s PRISONS ARE AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO PREVENT CRIME POLICE ARE IMPOTENT TO PREVENT CRIME

Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important Conclusions 1.American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust) method of crime control

Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important Conclusions 1.American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust) method of crime control ◦Age is nature’s best cure for crime

Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important Conclusions 1.American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust) method of crime control ◦Age is nature’s best cure for crime ◦Extreme skew in offending rates

Age and Crime: Glueck Data Eggleston, Laub and Sampson (2004)

Age and Crime: London Data Farrington, Piquero, and Jennings (2013)

High rate offenders are a small fraction of total Offenders o Chronic trajectory groups are a small fraction of the total o Wolfgang: 6% of cohort accounted for 50% of arrests o Farrington: 8% of sample accounted for 53% of convictions o Pathways to Desistance: 2%-5% of sample accounted for 50% of self-reported offending

Frequency of Income Generating Offending in Pathway’s Study 200+ offenses from Age 15 to 22

Frequency of Income Generating Offending in Pathway’s Study 200+ offenses from Age 15 to 22 Can they be identified before the fact?

Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important Conclusions 1.American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust) method of crime control 2.There is no evidence of a specific deterrent effect

Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important Conclusions There is no evidence of a specific deterrent effect “…compared to non-custodial sanctions, incarceration has a null or mildly criminogenic impact on future criminal involvement. We caution that this assessment is not sufficiently firm to guide policy, with the exception that it calls into question wild claims that imprisonment has strong specific deterrent effects.”

Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important Conclusions 1.American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust) method of crime control 2.There is no evidence of a specific deterrent effect 3.The Incremental deterrent effect of long sentences is small

Certainty of Punishment & Deterrence Commit Crime Apprehension P(A) Conviction P(C|A) Imprisonment P(I|A &C)

Risk of Apprehension & Deterrence Commit Crime Apprehension P(A) Good evidence of a deterrent effect

Risk of Conviction & Deterrence Commit Crime Apprehension P(A) No evidence on whether there is a deterrent effect Conviction P(C|A)

Risk of Imprisonment & Deterrence Commit Crime Apprehension P(A) Evidence does not support a deterrent effect Conviction P(C|A) Imprisonment P(I|A &C)

Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important Conclusions 1.American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust) method of crime control 2.There is no evidence of a specific deterrent effect 3.The Incremental deterrent effect of long sentences is small 4.The certainty of apprehension, not the severity of the ensuing consequences, is the most effective deterrent

Commentary on Imprisonment in America “Our resources are misspent, our punishments too severe, our sentences too long.” Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy, 2003

Commentary on Imprisonment in America “Our resources are misspent, our punishments too severe, our sentences too long.” Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy, 2003 “Too many Americans go to too many prisons for far too long and for no good law enforcement reason.” Attorney General Eric Holder, 2013

How and How Not to Respond? HOW NOT TO RESPOND Increasing sentence lengths Sending more drug offenders to prison

How and How Not to Respond? HOW NOT TO RESPOND Increasing sentence lengths Sending more drug offenders to prison HOW TO RESPOND Strategic mobilization of police to deter crime in the first place so that there is nobody to arrest and punish

Police as Apprehension Agents

Police as Sentinels